Hope you’ve had a fantastic week so far. If not, take comfort in the fact that it’s almost over now. For our readers in the United States, I’d like to wish you a very relaxing long weekend ahead.
There’s a heck of a lot of money looking for a home, and the tendency is for it to gravitate toward whatever can provide it with the greatest return … for a reasonable risk.
So the question is, if all this money has come out of the stock market, where will it go next?
The answer could well be that it’ll go right back into the stock market. But I believe that most people will be a bit more hesitant to go in and buy the dip this time, if not simply for the fact that valuations have become ridiculous, then for the fact that many noob Robinhood traders have just become first-time rekt and may be hesitant to get back in.
The jobs report that came out about an hour ago was really encouraging, showing the U.S. unemployment rate falling to 8.4%, which is really incredible considering analysts were forecasting nearly 10%.
Looking at this graph, it’s easy to see how things could have been much worse. Even though the report also showed how millions of people can’t return to work because their jobs no longer exist, it is quite apparent that the recovery is under way.
Of course, the stock market has been extremely disconnected from the economy for several months already, so I don’t see any reason for it to start becoming rational now.
As far as my big short that I entered a couple months ago, it may be too late for me. My contracts expire on September 18, and are still way out of the money.
As for my crypto portfolio, we’re still in fantastic profits, and after this morning’s big test of $10k and a picture perfect rejection on the first attempt, I’m buying the dip.
Not that it might not break on the second attempt, but if it does, we still have the 200-day moving average directly below and the famed CME gap at $9,500 that’s yet to be filled.