Indiens rolle i den globale bilelektrificering

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Electrification has quickly emerged as one of the key
globale megatrends på tværs af branchen og er en bidragyder til
disruptiv æra i bil- og mobilitetssektoren.

Mature markets such as Europe and Greater China are taking
væsentlige skridt til at omstille deres køretøjer til den elektriske tidsalder,
and their consumer markets have responded enthusiastically. India
er lidt bagud i forhold til e-mobilitetslederne
but is betting on mass-scale electric mobility.

Darshak Parikh, Senior Research Analyst – E-Mobility, IHS Markit
and Raghunandan Balasubramanian, Senior Research Analyst –
Powertrain, IHS Markit udforsker Indiens voksende elektriske køretøj
(EV) industry and how the country’s supplier and component
community can tap into new opportunities.

Vækstfremskrivning
The production of alternative powertrain (AP)
technologies—consisting of mild hybrids, full hybrids, battery
electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles
(FCEV'er) - bør stige fra 15 millioner enheder i 2021 til 65
millioner enheder i 2030 globalt.
During the same timeframe, the production of non-electrified
internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, including ICE
stop/start vehicles, will significantly decline from 68 million
units in 2021 to 38 million units by 2030.

AP-industrien (alternativ drivlinje) i Indien er stadig
developing, with limited availability and affordability of
electrified vehicles. However, by 2030 one in every four vehicles
produced in India should leverage some form of alternative
propulsion, with mild hybrids forecast to hold the dominant market
del blandt alle AP-køretøjer.

For at opfylde efterspørgslen fra produktion af elektrificerede køretøjer, Indien
will require around 1.8 million electric motors and 11GWh battery
capacity by 2030, of which around 260,000 electric motors and
10.5GWh battery capacity are expected for the production of
BEV'er.

Udvikling af AP-komponentindustrien
AP component technologies have already reached a level of maturity
that supports mass-market adoption and large-scale production of
elektrificerede køretøjer.

For fuldhybrid- og batterielektriske køretøjer, brugen af
permanent magnet motors should remain widespread, owing to their
højere momenttæthed, bedre effektivitet og mindre emballage
envelope. In a similar fashion, increasingly nickel-rich
chemistries for battery cells, such as NMC622 and NMC811,are likely
to be the preference of most mainstream automakers globally.

Moving forward, to support a significant increase in AP
component demand, suppliers and OEMs will have to quickly develop
components and technologies and scale up their production to keep
pace with the momentum.

We have witnessed new and interesting strategies,
collaborations, and joint ventures among component suppliers to
expand their offerings and capture the new markets as and when they
opstå. Et eksempel er e-akseldomænet, hvor elmotor,
inverter, og transmissionsleverandører er i stigende grad gået sammen
to provide integrated electric propulsion solutions.

New joint ventures and other partnerships will also enable the
konstituerende virksomheder for at udnytte fælles eller komplementære synergier
and develop or expand into new products, services, and business
områder. I mellemtiden giver frasalg og spin-offs virksomheder mulighed for
flytte mere fokus og kapital til vækstområder som f.eks
e-mobility.

Furthermore, consolidation of business practices may also be a
prudent move from a financial perspective. Through mergers and
acquisitions, horizontal, or vertical integration, companies can
strengthen business lines and increase market share.

Endelig, ved at opnå statsstøtte såsom undtagelser,
subsidies, and schemes, companies can ease the financial burden of
establishing new businesses in emerging sectors such as this.

Nye mulighedsområder for leverandører
Rollen for tier-1 og tier-2 leverandører ændrer sig. Skiftet til
electrified propulsion is destined to bring major opportunities as
samt udfordringer for traditionelle OEM'er, leverandører og nye
entrants. As highlighted earlier, suppliers will have to quickly
udvikle teknologi og produktionskapacitet til at understøtte
overgang.

The Indian market for electric motors and power electronics
komponenter vil sandsynligvis opleve kolossal vækst fra 0.15 mio
units in 2020 to 1.8 million units in 2030. The domestic
opportunity, along with the chance to manufacture at scale and
supply to global markets, is potentially very lucrative for tier-1
and tier-2suppliers.

In terms of the global component supply chain, electric
powertrain component manufacturing should increasingly shift within
OEM'er, da de søger at reducere produktionsomkostningerne og administrere
complexities, while maintaining a degree of powertrain ownership,
especially for second-generation platforms.

Selvom den overordnede størrelse af EV-komponentmarkedet er
stigende, bør andelen af ​​komponentoutsourcing falde i
the long term as indicated in the following chart.

However, this development may put additional pressure on the
suppliers to identify new or niche markets to find additional
muligheder.

Tier-1-leverandører bliver nødt til konstant at innovere og udvikle sig
components related to new and upcoming technologies, competing with
other suppliers as well as in-house OEM capability to secure
business. They can also increase their product offerings by
collaborating with other tier-1suppliers to provide solutions such
as integrated power electronics and e-axles.

Indien mod resten af ​​verden
While growth in the AP (alternative powertrain) industry is on an
upward trajectory, the industry in India has much ground to cover
at realisere udbredt adoption. Cost-benefit-analysen vejer ind
favor of electrification in two- and three-wheel domains as well as
ride-sharing markets, but the same cannot be said for light
vehicles yet.

In the long term, India has the potential to establish itself as
et globalt forsknings- og produktionscenter. Eksisterende medvind det
may lead to this scenario are favorable FAME II policies, the
regeringens produktionsrelaterede incitamenter (PLI) for indenlandske
fremstilling af battericeller, samt incitamenter til
etablering af en indenlandsk halvlederindustri.

Even though India lacks the necessary raw materials for the
production of major electrified powertrain components, it is among
the few territories that have the strategic advantage of the lowest
omkostninger til battericelle-fremstilling, samt nogle andre
electric powertrain components.

Mange delstatsregeringer tilbyder også incitamenter på udbudssiden
and capital subsidies for AP component manufacturing and assembly.
På hjemmemarkedet har opererende OEM'er og leverandører ekspansion
kapaciteter, der allerede er på plads, og de kan opskaleres betydeligt
produktion til at blive en større spiller inden for både indenlandsk og eksport
markeder.

India’s component industry already has the right set of
ressourcer, en veldefineret forsyningskæde og en dybdegående
forståelse for bilbranchen. Ved at udnytte disse
assets and focusing on EV component development and manufacturing
efterhånden som efterspørgslen stiger, kan industrien potentielt få en stærk
foothold in domestic and export markets.

For at få en dybdegående information om det udviklende EV-økosystem,
log in to an Autocar Professional – IHS Markit webinar on ‘Supply Chain Dynamics of Electrified Powertrain
Components’, on June 15, at 2:30 p.m (IST).

Tilmeld dig her for at
deltage

Kilde: http://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/indias-role-in-global-automotive-electrification.html