Aktiemarkedet har muligvis misforstået, hvad denne svage jobrapport betyder for Fed

meget svagere end forventet april-job report reinforces the Federal Reserve’s easy policy stance, but some strategists still expect the central bank to signal in the next couple of months that it will slow down its bond buying.

Economists had expected to see 1 million new jobs last month, so the government’s report of just 266,000 was a gut punch to the view that the economy is rebounding in a smooth upward trajectory. The anticipation for a big jobs number also had put the spotlight on the Fed’s easing programs.

Aktiefutures steg, og statsrenterne faldt umiddelbart efter rapporten. Men 10-årig skatkammer udbytte, efter at være faldet til omkring 1.49% vendte til at handle til 1.55%. Det 5 år faldt også, men forblev i nærheden af ​​dets lave. Renterne bevæger sig modsat obligationskurserne. I eftermiddagshandel, lagrene forblev højere med Dow op omkring 160 point.

“I’m wondering if bonds are selling off a little as it just reinforces [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell wanting to be patient,” said John Briggs, head of global strategy at NatWest Markets. “But if you’re like me, waiting for the Fed to taper, I think the Fed is going to start talking about it in September. That means the market is going to be talking about it in the summer.”

Økonomer sagde, at maj-jobrapporten vil give flere oplysninger om ansættelsestilstanden, som kunne være blevet bremset af flaskehalse, der dukkede op i forsyningskæderne. For eksempel har bilarbejdere stået i tomgang på grund af mangel på halvledere, der er nødvendige for at bygge biler. Der er også akut mangel på arbejdskraft i nogle områder og brancher. Økonomer ser også lukkede skoler som et problem, der holder forældre fra arbejdsstyrken. I et vist omfang kan udvidede dagpenge også være en faktor.

“If one is thinking about the evident labor shortages being inflationary, that should push the 5-year yield up,” said Michael Schumacher, Wells Fargo rates director. “But the other side is if you consider the chance of the Fed tapering, that’s been pushed back slightly. Not much in my opinion, but people might take that view.”

Schumacher sagde, at han stadig forventer, at Fed vil diskutere trimning af sine køb på omkring 120 milliarder dollars om måneden i statskasser og realkreditobligationer.

Fed-formand Jerome Powell har slået tanken om, at Fed vil begynde at diskutere en afslapning når som helst snart. Men nogle strateger forventer stadig, at Fed bliver tvunget til at bremse opkøbene og i sidste ende stoppe dem på grund af styrken af ​​det økonomiske opsving og inflationsspektret.

Et skridt mod at afslutte obligationsopkøbsprogrammet ville i sidste ende være et skridt i retning af at hæve renten, hvilket Fed ikke forventes at gøre foreløbig. Powell har sagt, at Fed vil afslutte den langsomme afvikling af sine obligationsopkøb, før renten hæves.

“If you’re an economy bull, you say this is probably an aberration. … The bears can say you’re losing momentum. Either are possible until you get another month,” Briggs said, noting the next report could show a large amount of hiring. “When was the last time you reopened an economy in a pandemic? Where are your seasonal factors for that?”

Han sagde, at obligationsmarkedet også reagerer på potentialet for mere finanspolitisk stimulans, fremhævet af Det Hvide Hus efter det svage tal.

“It’s as simple as this — a drop in rates, let’s buy tech,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group. “The stock market can’t decide whether it wants to celebrate the drop in yields and maybe a Fed that’s not going to taper so quickly but at the same time, we’re early stage in the recovery but we’re seeing a lot of late stage behavior like supply demand getting hot … this overheating.”

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said the bond market reversal appears to have come as traders looked at the inconsistencies and decided the number was distorted. “That was my view as well,” he said on CNBC. Hatzius said the weak jobs report does not change his view that the Fed will taper its bond purchases starting next year and then raise interest rates in 2024.

“I’m not sure having one dud report changes the calculation too much,” said Schumacher. “I suspect the forecast range will be astronomical next month.”

Arbejdsløsheden steg i april til 6.1 % fra 6 %. Størstedelen af ​​ansættelserne var i fritids- og gæstfrihedssektoren, som tilføjede 331,000 job, da pandemiske restriktioner på restauranter lettede.

Den gennemsnitlige timeløn steg med 21 cent til $30.17 i april, og økonomer bemærker, at stærk ansættelse af arbejdere i restaurationsbranchen typisk får det samlede løntal til at falde.

“This is a devastating disappointment, more than just seasonal problems. We had declines in everything from professional services to manufacturing and even couriers and transportation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “Turning on the lights in the economy is harder than turning them off.”