Af Lawrence G. McMillan
As $SPX has recovered from its July 19th lows and driven to new all-time highs, not a lot has changed regarding the overall picture. It’s still the big-cap tech stocks leading the way, as the NASDAQ- 100 ($NDX; QQQ) and Dow ($DJX; DIA) are near all-time highs as well. But the internals of the market are still weak as manifested in the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT; IWM).
Teknisk set forbliver diagrammet over $SPX stærkt. Der er potentiel støtte ved 4233. Hvis det giver efter, vil diagrammet ikke længere blive betragtet som bullish. Der er yderligere support under det, på 4165 og 4060, begge niveauer, der er blevet testet som gyldig support.
Et primært område med intern svaghed er dataene om equity-only put-call ratio. Put-køb har været relativt tungt i juli måned, og disse nøgletal fortsætter med at stige. Det betyder, at de er på salgssignaler.
Et andet område med intern svaghed har været bredden. Bredden er forbedret en del siden den 19. juli-lav, og begge breddeoscillatorer er på købssignaler, men ikke på de niveauer, man ville forvente med $SPX, der laver nye rekorder.
Contrasting the negative internals implied volatility generally has remained a friend to the bulls. $VIX has not exploded for any length of time, and even if it does, a new “spike peak” buy signal quickly follows.
In summary, the bullish case is still intact, as long as $SPX continues to remain above 4233 and as long as $VIX is trending lower. Having said that, we will trade various sell signals alongside that “core” bullish position when they are confirmed.
Denne markedskommentar er en forkortet version af kommentaren i Optionsstrategens nyhedsbrev.
Kilde: https://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2021/07/weekly-stock-market-commentary-7302021
