انتظار می رود بانک مرکزی اروپا با کند شدن اقتصاد و افزایش تورم، ثابت بماند

For some time, central-bank watchers have expected the ECB’s October meeting to be relatively unexciting, but the current mix of کند شدن رشد و تورم بالاتر می تواند آن را پرحادثه تر از آنچه در ابتدا پیش بینی می شد تبدیل کند.

Although big decisions on the future of the European Central Bank’s emergency stimulus package — the برنامه خرید اضطراری همه گیر — are unlikely to be revealed until December, investor interest will be focused on comments made by bank President Christine Lagarde in this Thursday’s press conference.

“We see scope for the ECB to continue its pushback against current market pricing in its communications at the meeting,” Spyros Adreopoulos, senior European economist at BNP Paribas, said in a recent note.

“The flipside of pushing back against market pricing is that we also expect Christine Lagarde to maintain that the current spike in inflation is largely transitory.”

اقتصاد منطقه یورو در حال حاضر با شوک های اقتصادی نامطلوب متعددی مواجه است. تنگناهای زنجیره تامین کمبود انواع کالا ایجاد کرده اند و قیمت بنزین به بالاترین حد خود رسیده است. با وجود این ابهامات، بازار در حال حاضر در اولین افزایش نرخ بهره توسط بانک مرکزی در پایان سال 2022 قیمت گذاری می کند.

“The market will be keen to hear if President Lagarde ... argues as strongly as ECB Chief Economist Lane that the market timing of lift-off is inconsistent with the new guidance,” writes Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.

Earlier this month, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane called into question whether interest rates would rise at the end of next year, given that the central bank has said it won’t lift rates until inflation is at 2% over the medium term.

“When you look at market prices of the forward interest rate curve I think it’s challenging to reconcile some of the market views with our pretty clear, straightforward forward guidance,” Lane said at an online event, according to Reuters.

تورم منطقه یورو در ماه سپتامبر به بالاترین حد خود در 13 سال گذشته رسید که عمدتاً ناشی از افزایش قیمت انرژی، افزایش قیمت خودرو و هزینه های بالاتر برای اقامت بوده است.

“While the rise in prices for ‘accommodation’ should be interpreted as [a] “catch up” price increase, rising car prices reflect supply side bottlenecks,” Dirk Schumacher said in a note to clients.

“The September figures provide tentative evidence that the catch up part of inflation is an one-off and therefore temporary, while the price pressure emanating from bottlenecks is, so far, not abating.”

Investors will be watching for any indication of a shift in the ECB’s thinking on the nature of the current spike in inflation. So far, the persistent narrative has been that “انتظار می رود افزایش فعلی تورم تا حد زیادی موقتی باشد and underlying price pressures are building up only slowly,” as Lagarde stated in September. Any change to this assessment could be a real market mover as it would also imply a more hawkish tone inside the bank’s Governing Council.

تاکنون، اکثریت اقتصاددانان انتظار دارند که بانک مرکزی اروپا در تلاش برای جلوگیری از تشدید بی دلیل شرایط مالی در زمانی که بهبود اقتصادی منطقه یورو در حال کند شدن است، اشتباه کند.