Saham Global Naik Karena Inflasi Menarik Taruhan Kenaikan Suku Bunga, Dolar Tertunduk

* Indeks MSCI AxJ naik 0.4%; Nikkei naik 1.4%

* Kurva imbal hasil Treasury mendatar; reli dolar terhenti

* Pembicara Fed, data pendapatan bank AS dan data PPI ditunggu

Oleh Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) – World stock markets rose and longer-dated bonds rallied on Thursday as investors reckoned rising inflation would bring forward rate hikes around the world.

Dolar melemah lebih jauh dari level tertinggi tahun 2021 yang dicapai pada awal minggu.

Europe’s STOXX 600 index climbed to its highest point of the month as it opened up 0.6%. London’s FTSE and the DAX and CAC40 in Frankfurt and Paris were all going nicely, and Wall Street futures added 0.5% too .

MSCI’s index of Asian shares outside Japan gained 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.4%. Property shares suffered in Shanghai, holding the broader index flat, while Hong Kong markets were closed for a holiday.

Tiongkok memberikan sinyal terbaru mengenai tekanan harga yang melanda rantai pasokan, karena data menunjukkan harga produsen tahunan tumbuh pada laju tercepat yang pernah tercatat pada bulan September.

That followed figures on Wednesday showing another solid increase in U.S. consumer prices last month, along with minutes from September’s Federal Reserve meeting which suggested policymakers’ growing concern about inflation.

Markets’ response has been to bet that central bankers are forced to raise rates sooner rather than later, but that they then sit on their hands for a while. Fed Funds futures are all but priced for a 25 basis point hike next September, brought forward from near the end of 2022, but pricing also suggests rates hovering around just 1.5% in five years’ time.

“The market continued to pull forward the pricing of the first rate hike while also decreasing terminal rate pricing, which we believe is a reflection of the market pricing in a policy mistake,” said analysts at TD Securities.

Imbal hasil Treasury jangka pendek meningkat sementara imbal hasil jangka panjang turun, sehingga kurva menjadi datar. Emas stabil setelah menikmati sesi terbaiknya dalam tujuh bulan pada hari Rabu. Bitcoin, terkadang dibanggakan sebagai lindung nilai inflasi, naik 1.5% ke level tertinggi lima bulan di $58,550.

Kisah berlanjut

Imbal hasil (yield) jangka panjang juga turun di Asia dan dolar, yang menguat sepanjang bulan September, kemudian turun tajam seiring dengan penurunan imbal hasil Treasury yang lebih panjang, sedikit memperpanjang penurunan.

Hari ini para pedagang sedang menunggu harga produsen AS dan angka klaim pengangguran serta penampilan dari pembuat kebijakan Bank of England dan Federal Reserve.

Laporan pendapatan juga dijadwalkan dari Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley dan Citi.

FOKUS KEBIJAKAN

Besides removing reference to Fed members “generally” expecting inflation pressures to ease, last month’s minutes also showed agreement that tapering asset purchases will soon begin.

Central banks elsewhere are also calling time on pandemic-era policy support. Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy on Thursday, citing forecasts for higher inflation .

In Australia, a drop in employment figures and remarks from a central bank official about laggardly wages haven’t derailed a buildup of recent market bets on rate hikes beginning next year either.

Pasar swap telah memperhitungkan kenaikan suku bunga sekitar 90 basis poin pada akhir tahun 2023 meskipun Reserve Bank of Australia bersikeras bahwa kenaikan suku bunga sebelum tahun 2024 tidak mungkin terjadi.

Currency markets were fairly quiet on Thursday after the dollar’s Wednesday drop – which was its steepest fall on the euro in five months.

The euro edged higher to $1.1601 in Asia while sterling, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar added a little bit to Wednesday’s gains.

Dari komoditas pada hari Kamis, minyak berjangka stabil, berada di atas $80 per barel, dengan minyak mentah AS di $81.09 per barel dan Brent di $83.88.

Emas mempertahankan kenaikan semalam di $1,792 per ounce.

Imbal hasil Treasury 10-tahun berada di 1.5491% setelah turun tiga bps semalam dan imbal hasil obligasi dua tahun sedikit turun menjadi 0.356% setelah naik 1.8 bps semalam.

(Laporan oleh Tom Westbrook; Penyuntingan oleh Edwina Gibbs dan Muralikumar Anantharaman)

Sumber: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-stocks-inflation-pulls-071626752.html