CHF adalah mata uang terkuat minggu ini. NZD adalah yang terlemah.

• Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS bergerak lebih rendah setelah keberhasilan lelang obligasi bertenor 3, 10, dan 30 tahun, dan melakukan manuver melalui apa yang sebelumnya angka CPI yang lebih tinggi for May.  The 10 year yield moved below the 1.5% level (the high cycle yield reached 1.774% on March 30), and closed below the 100 day MA at 1.493% for the first time since October 2020.  For the week, the 10 year yield fell -10.16 basis points to 1.4518%. The 30 year was down -9.34 basis points to 2.1379%, while the 2 year yield rose by 0.21 basis points to 0.1469%. The traders seem content to follow the Fed’s lead that inflation will be transitory.  The FOMC meets this week on Tuesday with the decision at 2 PM on Wednesday and Chair Powell presser on Wednesday at 2:30 PM ET.  The market will be focused on any references to tapering from the statement or the Fed chair.  Rates are not close to being changed. 

• Looking at other 10 year yields from around the globe, the Italian 10 year yield fell the most (-13 basis points). The German 10 year fell -6.1 basis points while France’s yield fell by -5.7 basis points and is at 0.097% (and getting closer to 0.0% again).  In the new trading week, the SNB will keep rates unchanged at -0.75% on Thursday. The focus will be on the language. SNB Jordan continues to view the CHF as “very strong”. The BOJ rate decision will be Friday and they too are expected to keep rates unchanged at -0.1% and the 10 year JGB yield target at 0.0% (with tolerance of +/-25BPS).  

• Most major global stock indices moved higher this week with the exception of the Dow 30 (-0.8%) and the Shanghai Composite index (-0.06%). The biggest gainer was the small cap Russell 2000 index (US) which rose 2.16%. In Europe, the France’s CAC nudged out Spain’s  Ibex as the biggest gainer (1.3% vs 1.28%). 

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