הפד פותח פגישה של יומיים על רקע זינוק אינפלציה, צמיחה חסרת תעסוקה

הפדרל ריזרב קובעי המדיניות נפגשים השבוע על רקע נתונים כלכליים סותרים, שכן ביקוש עצור גורם לעלייה במחירים לצרכן - אפילו כשמיליוני אמריקאים נותרו מובטלים יותר משנה לאחר תחילת מגיפת הקורונה.

Economists will be closely watching the Fed’s new policy statement, which will be released Wednesday afternoon, for signs that central bank officials are ready to start talking about tapering the bond-buying program that began in March 2020 and provide guidance on when – and how quickly – they expect to pare back the monetary support. 

מאזן הפד עולה על 8T $ בפעם הראשונה

Officials will be carefully treading the line between their pledge to support the economy until it reaches full employment and an uptick in inflation. Still, most economists say they anticipate that the Fed will signal either at its June meeting or later this summer that it’s beginning to tighten monetary policy. 

Although anemic job growth “gives the Fed air cover to maintain stimulus and hold off any outward discussions of tapering their bond purchases … behind closed doors it is bound to be a hot topic of discussion,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate. 

משרד העבודה הודיע ​​בשבוע שעבר כי מדד המחירים לצרכן (מדד המחירים לצרכן) זינק ב-5% במאי לעומת שנה קודם לכן, הזינוק המהיר ביותר מאז 2008. בנטרול נתוני המזון והאנרגיה הפכפכים, אינפלציית הליבה עלתה ב-3.8% מ-1992. שנה קודם לכן, המהיר ביותר מאז יוני XNUMX. זה היה החודש השני ברציפות שבו המחירים לצרכן עלו, מה שהעלה את החשש שרמות חסרות תקדים של תמריצים ממשלתיים, יחד עם פתיחת הכלכלה מחדש, יתרמו לצמיחה בורחת.  

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At the same time, however, job growth missed Wall Street’s expectations in both April and May; there remain 7.4 million fewer jobs than in February 2020.

Minutes from the Fed’s April 27-28 meeting show that officials are inching toward a conversation about weening support for the economy. While most policymakers agreed they need to see “substantial” further progress toward their goals of inflation and full employment, a “number” of officials said that “if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.” 

“Although recent economic data has been encouraging, the Fed will remain focused on the still large jobs deficit of over 8 million when compared to before COVID,” said Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist of LendingTree. 

חיפושי עבודה עלו במדינות שמפסיקים בטרם עת דמי אבטלה

Policymakers are publicly committed to holding interest rates rate near zero until the economy reaches “maximum employment” and inflation moderately exceeds 2% for “some time,” but at least five Fed officials have suggested that discussions could take place soon regarding reducing the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, a policy designed to keep credit cheap.

“We do expect the Fed to begin to talk about reducing its monthly asset purchases soon; if not at the June meeting, then in the next couple of months,” said Cailin Birch, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “For now, we expect the Fed to keep interest rates at zero until 2023, but it is likely to start lowering its liquidity injections in 2022.”

לחץ כאן כדי לקרוא עוד על עסקי שועל

The Fed will also release updated economic projections at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, which it does on a quarterly basis. Previous estimates from the Fed’s March meeting show that a majority of policymakers expect interest rates to remain near zero through 2023. 

כשבעה מתוך 18 פקידי הפד בפגישה אמרו שהם מצפים להתחיל להעלות את הריבית ב-2022 או 2023.

“If this changes materially with the June update, it will call into question the Fed’s commitment to hold rates steady until the economy gets close to full employment,” McBride said.

מקור: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-june-meeting-inflation-unemployment