Automotive electrification and decarbonization: Shifting toward net-zero

• A 55% EU economy-wide carbon dioxide
  (CO₂) emission reduction from the 1990 level is targeted
  by 2030.
• Mainland China, currently the world’s leading
  CO₂ emitting country, also pledged in 2020 to achieve
  carbon neutrality by 2060. As an interim target, mainland China
  pledged a 20% reduction from carbon peak level by 2035.
• And, in February 2021, the United States
  rejoined the Paris Agreement; achieving carbon net-zero by 2050 is
  in the Biden administration’s climate plan.

The transportation sector is one major source of CO₂
in economy entities, for example, about 29% in the European Union,
more than one-third in the United States, and nearly 10% and
climbing in mainland China. Among all transport sub-sectors, road
transportation accounts for about 70% of CO₂ emissions
and will face significant challenges on the way toward
net-zero.

To achieve carbon neutrality, each market has its unique
position and regulatory pathway. Mainland China is expected to
reach the CO₂ emission peak between 2025 and 2030,
optimistically around 2025, before the emissions start to drop. The
EU market has been moving progressively on increasing stringencies
of regulatory requirements, from the review of tightened 2030 fleet
tailpipe target to the possibility of implementing Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA) in compliance accounting. The United States is
facing significant challenges, especially in the upcoming decade,
to set consistent policy directions and catch up with pledged
milestones.

Vehicle electrification is considered to be one of the most
effective ways to reduce CO₂ emissions from the
transportation sector. Take EU market as an example, with more
stringent CO₂ standards being recently propose, battery
electric vehicle (BEV) sales share is projected to be around 55% in
2030, along with a slight increase of plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEVs) by 10%, to replace conventional internal
combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Currently, the legislations
regulate CO₂ or greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on
traditional tailpipe emissions directly from fuel combustion during
vehicle operations. The regulatory framework gives battery electric
vehicles (BEVs) credits as an incentive and considers them as zero
emissions.

From the societal perspective, the debate is often that BEV
operation is not emission-free as it consumes electricity, the
supply of which often emits CO₂. Whether BEVs are
beneficial to climate or as beneficial as claimed needs holistic
and systematic evaluations. LCA is a methodology developed to
assess environmental impacts associated with all the phases of a
product, process, or service’s life cycle from cradle to grave.

A complete LCA could count emissions from raw material
extraction and processing, components manufacturing, transportation
and distribution, product assembly, product use, and end-of-life.
Life-cycle CO₂ emission assessment on vehicles, with
careful handling of accounting guidelines, will provide a more
objective way to quantify the influence and realistic
carbon-reduction effects of electrification toward an economy-wide
carbon neutrality target.

LCA accounting to be integrated into current fuel and emission
regulations is under review. Aside from the possibility of
tightening 2030 cars and vans CO₂ target, the European
Commission’s 2030 Climate Target Plan and its current cars and vans
emission legislation require the review of LCA integration by 2023.
China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan (CALCP) Research Report
2020 , supported by the United Nations Environment Programme, World
Resource Institute, Energy Foundation, China Ministry of Economy
and Environment, China Ministry of Transport, and other
governmental agencies, organizations, and research institutes, has
developed life-cycle-based CO₂ accounting guidelines for
passenger vehicles and car manufacturers to be further used in
automotive industrial policy development, especially with
electrification movements. LCA-based measurements will also promote
integration of regulatory framework (for example, car and van
CO₂ targets, Renewable Energy Directive II, Emissions
Trading System) and benefit from collaborative planning under the
pathways toward carbon net-zero by the middle of the 21st
century.

Download our latest
whitepaper

Our Automotive Electrification and Decarbonization whitepaper
provides a life-cycle perspective for on-road transport
electrification and decarbonization, including:

• An integrated way to evaluate vehicle electrification toward
  carbon neutrality
• Car manufacturers commitment to science-based targets
  initiative to reduce scope 1, 2, 3, CO₂ emissions
• In-depth data recources to lead life-cycle accounting in the
  automotive sector
• What the realistic CO₂ savings are from passenger
  vehicle electrification
• Life-cycle baed CO₂ emisssions reduction based on
  the cleanness of electricity grid
• Ability for car manufacturers to achieve decarbonization
  targets
• Well-designed economy-wide LCA guidelines key to promoting
  feasible and efficient CO₂ reductions under Europe’s
  integrated ‘Fit for 55’ climate package

Source: http://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/auto-electrification-and-decarbonization-shift-toward-net-zero.html