Comment on Tom Waterhouse Tipping Review by Michael

The following is a review of the Tom Waterhouse horse racing tipping service, which is run by former bookmaker Tom Waterhouse. We look at the features and packages and discuss our own experience with the service.

This article is updated periodically to reflect the latest tipping performance data, prices and features.

About Tom Waterhouse

Tom Waterhouse is the former CEO of William Hill Australia. He comes from a long family heritage of both bookmakers and horse trainers, which includes his mother, Gai Waterhouse. Tom became a licensed bookmaker in 2003 and launched the eponymous online wagering service in 2010. Waterhouse sold the business to William Hill Australia in 2013 and acted as CEO of William Hill Australia from 2014 until the service was sold in 2018 to BetEasy.

Judging by the performance data provided, it appears that the Tom Waterhouse tipping service was launched in May, 2018.

How Membership Works

Tom Waterhouse tipping provides horse racing tips for major city meets across Australia and Hong Kong.

Membership grants you subscription to a newsletter. The tips are sent by email. A mobile app is available on iOS and Android, so you can opt to receive tips via the app.

A range of weekly packages are available, ranging from the free Bronze package to the Emerald package at $249.95 per week. The Australian packages provide tips for one race day per week, while the Hong Kong package provides tips twice weekly. With the exception of the platinum package, membership is paid on a weekly basis. There are no lock-in contracts so you can cancel anytime.

Membership can be paid by Visa, MasterCard and American Express debit & credit cards. Your membership renews each week automatically unless you cancel the renewal using the online account area.

Apart from the free bronze package, the tips come with a recommended stake for each bet along with a comment on why Tom Waterhouse has selected that runner. A recommended starting bank of units is provided for each package. It’s up to you to assign a dollar value to each unit that fits your budget. Let’s say you choose a conversion of 1 unit = $3.00. If the recommended starting bank is 500 units and a certain bet has a recommended stake of 6.0 units, then you would start with a balance of $1,500 and wager $18.00 on that horse. Tom Waterhouse recommends that you periodically adjust the dollar value you assign to each unit in line with the ebbs and flows of your betting bank.

For the core packages the tips are all win bets. Saturday Place and Saturday Exotics Packages are also available. Some tips involve betting on multiple runners, but the majority involve one selection per race.

Account Area & Subscription Management

Tom Waterhouse uses the 3rd party service Memberful to run the account area and subscription service.

The account area is basic and clearly designed for mobile devices. It enables you to manage your subscriptions, view your payments and update your personal details.

Mobile App

Tips are sent by email, but Tom Waterhouse also now offers iPhone and Android apps to view your tips.

The Live Packages page displays the packages you have subscribed to that have active tips.

The bankroll designed for the package is displayed, along with the total number of units to be wagered that day and the number of tips.

Depending on the package, your tip may provide additional details such as the recommended stake, where the best odds are and the reasoning behind the tip.

For packages that contain multiple tips, the tips are categorised by race location. You scroll down to view the tips for a particular venue and scroll horizontally to view tips for other venues.

You click on the down arrow to view an expanded explanation for each tip.

Tipping Packages & Prices

Tom Waterhouse offers a range packages that provide horse racing tips. Until now the focus has been on Australian venues, but a twice weekly Hong Kong package has recently been launched.

The following prices are in Australian dollars. Unless stated otherwise, the package provides tips for Saturday races.

Bronze – free or $1 per week to receive 30 minutes earlier

Receive one Best Bet every Saturday. No credit card details are required to subscribe for the free option.

For $1.00 per week you can receive the best bet 30 minutes prior to the free subscribers. The advantage of paying is you can place a bet before the odds shorten, which they almost always do for this bet.

Performance:
According to the website the best bets have gone 17 from 31. With a level stakes staking plan you would be up over 83% on turnover. July 2019 update: based on the latest stats the best bets have gone 38 from 78. With a level stakes staking plan you would be up over 64% on turnover.

Silver – $19.95 per week

This package provides five best bets every Saturday morning before 11 AM AEST. Also included is an ‘Early Odds Boost’, where Tom Waterhouse emails one tip on Friday so you can save an odds boost for when the remaining tips come out on Saturday.

Recommended staking levels are provided, with the recommendation that you start with a bank of 500 units.

Note that the Silver package costs $24.99 when signing up through the app (due to App Store fees), so you’re better off signing up through the website.

Performance:
The Silver package has yielded a positive return in four of seven months since inception.

Staked (Units): 1,859.0
Returned (Units): 2,219.6
Profit (Units): 360.6
Profit on Turnover: 19.4%
Return on Investment: 72.1%
 

Gold – $25.95 per week

Sample email screenshot:

The Gold Package provides around 20 tips each week. The tips along with staking plans are emailed every Saturday at around 11 AM AEST. Included are the five ‘Best Bets of the Day’ that included in the Silver package, along with top tips for every major Australian city meeting that Tom Waterhouse is betting on.

Like the Silver package, the Gold package includes an ‘Early Odds Boost’, where Tom Waterhouse emails a tip on Friday so you can save an odds boost for when the full tips come out on a Saturday.

The Gold package is the only one that comes with a money back guarantee: if the bets show a negative performance over your first 28 days of your membership, you’ll get your subscription money back.

For this package it is recommended that you start with a bankroll of 1,000 units.

Performance:
The Gold package has yielded a positive return in four of seven months since inception.

Staked (Units): 4,334.5
Returned (Units): 4,813.1
Profit (Units): 478.6
Profit on Turnover: 11.0%
Return on Investment: 47.9%
 

Daily Best Bet – $34.95 per week

Receive one bet per day with a recommended stake amount, where the best odds are and a brief comment on the reasoning behind the tip.

Starting Bankroll: 250 Units
Profit: 695.00 Units
Races: 208
Wins: 92
Profit on Turnover: 32.6%
Return on Investment: 278.0%

Weekly Five Best – $34.95 per week

Receive 5 top value picks each week. You will get the top value pick for the Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and the Sunday meetings plus the weekly Early Bet Boost. The staking plan for each tip is provided, along with race comments.

This package was launched in September 2019 so no long-term performance data is available at the time of writing.

Saturday Early Mail Package – $99.95 per week

Sample email screenshot:

The Saturday Early Mail package was launched at the end of July. Every Thursday before 3 PM AEST, subscribers receive five best early bets of the week. Each tip comes with a recommended stake, race comments and where to get the best odds. The sales pitch behind this package is it gives you the best chance to back the runners before the odds firm.

For this package it is recommended that you start with a bankroll of 250 units.

Performance:
Profit (Units): 112.5
Profit on Turnover (PoT): 17.1%
Strike Rate: 44%
Average Extra Profit By Taking Early Price: 34%
View a full spreadsheet of results
 

Sunday Early Mail Package – $39.95 per week

Subscribers receive Tom Waterhouse’s three best tips for Sunday’s races along with a staking plan and where to get the best odds. Each email is sent by 6 PM AEST on Saturday. Race commentary for every bet is provided. This package recommends working with a bankroll of 150 units.

Performance:
As of July 2019:
Profit (Units): 19.68
Profit on Turnover (PoT): 5.0%
Return On Investment: 13.1%
Average Extra Profit By Taking Early Price vs SP: 53%
 

Wednesday’s 3 Best – $59.95 per week

The Wednesday Early Mail Package provides three best tips for Wednesday racing, along with a staking plan and where to get the best odds. Each email is sent out by 3 PM AEST on Tuesday.

This package recommends working with a betting bank of 100 units.

Performance: No data has been published
As of July 2019:
Profit (Units): 70.02
Profit on Turnover (PoT): 9.9%
Return On Investment: 46.7%
Average Extra Profit By Taking Early Price vs SP: 28%
 

Hong Kong Best Bets – $28.88 per week

Sample email screenshot:

The Hong Kong Best Bets provides 1-2 tips each week for both Sha Tin and Happy Valley. Membership includes the bankroll, staking plan, minimum odds to take and where you can currently find the best odds. The race days are typically Wednesday and then either Saturday or Sunday. View the Hong Kong racing calendar.

Performance:
As of July 2019:
Staked (Units): 321.50
Returned (Units): 368.19
Profit (Units): 46.69
Profit on Turnover: 14.5%
Return on Investment: 18.7%
 

Friday’s 5 Best – $19.95 per week

Receive Tom Waterhouse’s five best bets Australia-wide each Friday morning for the Friday races. The tips are emailed before 11am AEST.

This package recommends a starting bank of 500 units.

Performance:
As of July 2019 is:
Staked (Units): 922.50
Returned (Units): 1070.70
Profit (Units): 148.20
Profit on Turnover: 16.1%
Return on Investment: 29.6%

Emerald Package – $259.95 per week

The Emerald Package includes:

• All bets that Tom Waterhouse is placing on a Saturday – Australia-wide. These are sent out before 11 AM AEST each Saturday.
• A staking plan for every race
• Race analysis for every bet
• An ‘Early Odds Boost’ pick sent out before the weekend
• Access to an exclusive WhatsApp group where Tom Waterhouse provides updates and the late mail throughout each race day
• Invites to exclusive events throughout the year for no extra charge

Big Bundle – $299.95 per week

The Big Bundle provides access to all of the following packages:

• Every day – Daily Best Bet
• Wednesday – Early Mail
• Friday – 5 best
• Saturday – 20+ best to Win + Early Mail + live updates via WhatsApp + 5 best to Place + best Exotics
• Sunday – Early Mail + Exclusive 5 best
• Hong Kong – best bets each meeting

The included packages if bought separately would cost over $600. The Big Bundle also includes the Sunday Five Best Package, which is exclusive to Big Bundle members.

Platinum Package – $120,000 per year

You’d have to be keen to get this one! I would love to know if anyone has taken him up on it.

The Platinum package gives you the privilege of sitting with Tom Waterhouse every Saturday to watch first hand how he works.

There isn’t much information provided and we didn’t quite have the budget to do a test! The website simply shows an online form where you can register your interest.
 

Our Experience

We subscribed to a number of Tom Waterhouse packages over a one month period. Below are the results. All profit figures represent profit on turnover. Keep in mind that these figures don’t include membership fees. How the fees impact the results depends on how you define 1 betting unit. The higher the currency value per unit, the lower the impact of the fees. For our trial anything over $1.50 per unit would have yielded us a profit, net of fees, but a number of our packages were free trials.

October 27
– Gold members had 2 winners from 20 races for a 40% loss

November 3
– Gold members had 4 winners from 18 races for a 21% loss

November 6 – Melbourne Cup day
– Gold members had 6 winners from 32 races for a 36% profit

November 8 – Oaks Day
– Gold members had 5 winners from 17 races for a 90% profit

November 10
– Gold members had 3 winners from 18 races (including a runner at 15.00 odds) for an 87% profit

November 17
– Gold members had 1 winner from 26 races for an 83% loss
– Saturday Early Mail members had 3 winners for a 50% profit

November 24
– Gold members had 7 winners from 26 races for a 19% profit
– Saturday Early Mail members had 5 winners from 7 races for a 171% profit

November 28
– Hong Kong members had 2 winners from 5 races for a 97% profit

To provide some insight into the stakes and odds, for the Gold Package tips on the 24th of November the stakes ranged from 1 unit to 12 units. The odds that we obtained for the selections (using a pool of four bookmakers) ranged from 2.90 to 34.00 with an average of 8.27 and a median of 7.00.

Summary

Upsides

• Transparency about previous performance, particularly for the Saturday Early Mail package, Wednesday Early Mail, Sunday Early Mail and Daily Best Bet, which each provide a spreadsheet of all results
• Positive long-term profit achieved across all of the oldest packages
• Tips were received on time
• On the back of bad weeks we received free package trials
• Money back guarantee for the gold package
• The third party software for managing your account runs smoothly
• iPhone and Android apps are available in addition to the email service
• The tips arrived successfully to a Hotmail inbox, without winding up in the Junk Mail folder
• Cancelling subscriptions is easy, with no ‘why are you leaving’ surveys, discount offers or other delaying sales tactics

Downsides

• The odds for Tom Waterhouse’s selections often shorten after the tips are published. This makes it difficult to get the same odds as the ones that he bases the performance stats on.
• The published performance stats don’t account for membership fees
• The weekly Saturday Roundup email, which provides an overview of each package’s performance for the week, cheekily uses profit on turnover (a higher number) for packages with net wins for that week and profit on bankroll (a lower number) for packages that incurred net losses that week.
• No recommended minimum odds are provided for the Gold package
• The free package trials automatically renew to paid memberships unless you cancel
• “By subscribing to this tipping service members also consent to receiving information and links to third party websites. This applies to all Australian residents (excluding NSW and SA residents).”

Conclusion

Below are the profit on turnover figures for four of the major packages since the Tom Waterhouse tipping service was launched in May 2018. It should be noted that the Gold package has yielded a larger dollar return than the Silver package due to the higher number of units wagered each week. Also keep in mind that these figures (with the exception of Bronze, which is free) don’t account for membership fees, the impact of which depends on how you define 1 betting unit.

Bronze: 83.0%
Silver: 19.4%
Gold: 11.0%
Saturday Early Mail: 17.1%

Overall, our impression of the Tom Waterhouse tipping service is very positive. The tips were sent on time and the net result from our own wagering using a pool of four bookmakers (rather than relying on Tom Waterhouse’s figures) was a net return of 10.4% on turnover. Be prepared for a roller coaster ride, however, due to the high average odds and the fact that only win bets are provided. You will get vastly different fortunes from week to week because the difference between having a particular horse run 1st or 2nd is huge. You’ll have to accept that there will be bad weeks and will have to trust that the performance going forward matches the previous long-term performance.

July 2019 update:

The tipping service continues to perform consistently very well. We can now recommend Tom Waterhouse with increased confidence. Just be warned that the odds frequently drop immediately after each newsletter is published.

Due to the extensive data entry required when subscribing to the Gold Package, we recommend the Silver Package for those who are short on time on Saturday mornings. We also like the Daily Best Bet package due to its convenience of only placing one bet per day and for its strong performance.

Performance figures from the service’s inception through to mid-July 2019 are:

Bronze::
38 from 78. With a level stakes staking plan you would be up over 64% on turnover.

Silver:
Staked (Units): 3,716.50
Returned (Units): 4,600.68
Profit (Units): 884.18
Profit on Turnover: 23.8%
Return on Investment: 176.8%

Gold::
Staked (Units): 8,008.20
Returned (Units): 9,845.64
Profit (Units): 1837.44
Profit on Turnover: 22.9%
Return on Investment: 183.7%

Daily Best Bet:
Starting Bankroll: 250 Units
Profit: 695.00 Units
Races: 208
Wins: 92
Profit on Turnover: 32.6%
Return on Investment: 278.0%

Wednesday Early Mail:
Profit (Units): 70.02
Profit on Turnover (PoT): 9.9%
Return On Investment: 46.7%
Average Extra Profit By Taking Early Price vs SP: 28%

Saturday Early Mail:
Profit (Units): 318.44
Profit on Turnover (PoT): 18.1%
Return On Investment: 127.4%
Average Extra Profit By Taking Early Price vs SP: 34%

Sunday Early Mail:
Profit (Units): 19.68
Profit on Turnover (PoT): 5.0%
Return On Investment: 13.1%
Average Extra Profit By Taking Early Price vs SP: 53%

Friday’s Five Best:
Staked (Units): 922.50
Returned (Units): 1070.70
Profit (Units): 148.20
Profit on Turnover: 16.1%
Return on Investment: 29.6%

Saturday Exotics:
Staked (Units): 840.10
Returned (Units): 1032.30
Profit (Units): 192.20
Profit on Turnover: 22.9%
Return on Investment: 19.2%

The Big Bundle:
Staked (Units): 13,144.55
Returned (Units): 14,904.17
Profit (Units): 1,759.62
Profit on Turnover: 13.4%
Return on Investment: 176.0%

Visit Tom Waterhouse to view the latest performance stats.