Crypto market. Bears, bulls, or a new migration period?

The volatile crypto market has been slowly climbing to its old highs over the past three months, only to turn red last week, making some investors feel nervous. The downward trend of BTC in a very short period reminded investors of the high volatility and many of the large fall back in May, frightening many and ending the recently returned optimism.

We have forecasts arguments at opposite sides of the spectrum; whether we are on a bear market or whether the bull is about to return, with no real consensus on the market volatile behaviour.

Many experts have commented that September ends the Bull run ‘,’ Early October might turn, Heavy until Christmas’ and the most pessimistic statements that ‘we are already in a bear market since May’ etc.

What we forget in the middle of the trepidation is that the crypto market does not necessarily have to be bull or bear, but perhaps we are dealing with a different animal? The crypto market has suffered dramatic moves, sometimes from a simple Twitter message or at times without specific reasons, and it does without signaling where it will go next, it moves opposite to expectations; challenging even the best technical analysts.

In science, a subject’s behavior is one of the basic axioms, opening paths to new knowledge and discoveries. Why do investors insist on trying to predict crypto-market cycles with the same methods as with other markets when so far it has proven inadequate and unsuccessful? Conceivably, new methods and algorithms must be considered for a new asset class.

And being fundamentally rational, no one has been able to predict any market and forecast its peak. In a dream scenario, we could predict the future: invest in Crypto in January because there will be a bull market until September, we will all cash out in August and pack our bags to enjoy our summer gains. Wistfully, we know investing does not work that way. It is a dynamic ecosystem with infinite probabilities. There are winners and losers in every market. The moment you solve a financial problem, somewhere else, the next challenge is already being created.

Let’s have a wider picture as day trade candles cannot always provide a clear picture.

Bitcoin was $ 47K today, exactly a year ago it barely exceeded $ 10K. It is hard to argue this is not a clear bull! If you disagree, what is this? With an exponential return beating many indices, we cannot forget to be thankful for these profits.

In mid-April, it was close to touching $ 65K! From $ 65K to $ 47K there is admittedly a considerable gap … Certainly, for many, this would be the definition of a bear market. Depending on when investors enter, some have lost money and some cashed out profits, this is what the game is all about.

What if we push boundaries and consider alternative market behaviours other than bull and bear, how about a migration period?

After all, cryptos are not limited to winter and summer. We must consider the cryptocurrency space has now changed latitude and longitude and we are no longer in such known territories?

If we collect data from last year and compare it to earlier data, say 4 years ago, the dramatic trend is evident: Investment crypto-products, not only BTC but much smaller Alts coins have exponentially grown. As a result, institutional investors are on the verge of accepting them as mainstream investment vehicles after so much demand, traditional VCs have created Crypto funds, large banks have formed specialist crypto-teams, traditional businesses are integrating Crypto payments; even some countries have started to use them as a parallel currency. Not to mention the stratospheric growth of the P2P which is now galloping in some developing countries where cryptos have found a strong use case.

Regardless of price and general indicators, the degree of adoption has increased dramatically.

Money is not static. It is adventurous, moving in new directions and exploring the ‘space’ around it.

Besides the old protagonists, Bitcoin and Ethereum, crypto-investors are more adventurous and have adopted their new favourite “pets”. Alt-coins have been adopted at a much faster pace, compared to the initial Bitcoin-Ether adoption. This behaviour is resonating across all types of investors, including a large portion of retail investors. That is, you and me.

Solana, Algorand, Polkadot, to mention a few aspiring Ethereum killers and other Altcoins, are now absorbing millions of dollars, containing Bitcoin dominance. With this, we may not see Bitcoin market dominance above 50% again. If this is already happening, it will change the market DNA and its structure as we knew it until today. I am not referring to the traditional BTC-Altcoin season exchange, but a more permanent cycle.

By migration, I mean that it is not necessary to only see large movements from BTC to other Alts, but we also see it between smaller competitors, for instance, from ADA to DOT or from ETH to SOL.

This ‘King’ to Alts’ movement is only a part of the great ‘migration’. We also have to consider the dramatic changes in the decentralized economic system. In August, Stablecoin’s market size was $ 100 billion US. This proportion of the market is growing at a dizzying pace, attracting a lot of capital as a magnet in the process. At first glance, one might think that this is not a good sign for the market, and might argue that investors are scared of volatility and “sell” more adventurous cryptos only to fend their investments on Stablecoins heavens.

This rationale is one-sided and restrictive. DeFi products are extremely attractive for Stablecoins holders and that fact cannot be denied out of the equation. The market is realising the colossal Stablecoin’s potential, discovering new benefits and applications. This I bet would be the key to great mass migration. No matter how similar they are, coins linked to USD are known as USDTs, but they are not to be confused with USDs. USDTs offer superior and endless possibilities, including great yield returns and liquidity. USDTs are another market in itself.

Is this the great opportunity blockchain needed for mass adoption? Can Stablecoins unlock many new uses? Will Stablecoins be part of the blockchain future?

In any case, we are certainly living in a compelling era. We seemed to have just finished with the childbirth labor pains of crypto and we have now moved to the first toddler teething problems. We have witnessed the birth of the future economic universe. We may need to slowly migrate to less tropical and heavenly places, more movers in TradiFi may need to jump the wagon, but what an exciting journey it will be.

Do you like adventures? Me too, so get on board!

Source: https://medium.com/@billdimtsas/crypto-market-bears-bulls-or-a-new-migration-period-949b8f149bc1?source=rss——cryptocurrency-5