Euro priveste IPC german

It has been a busy start to the week for EUR/USD, which gained 100 points earlier in today but has given up almost all of these gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0384.

German CPI projected to decline

Inflation is running at a double-digit clip in the eurozone and Germany, and the ECB is keeping a careful eye on Tuesday’s German CPI for November, with a consensus of -0.2%, compared to a gain of 0.9% in October. Could this be the long-sought peak in inflation? If so, it would allow the ECB to ease up on its pace of rate hikes. The ECB was late getting into the hiking game, as Lagarde & Co. clearly underestimated the stickiness of inflation, which has hit 10.4% in Germany and 10.7% in the eurozone.

The ECB has been aggressive and raised rates by 75 basis points in October, but the main deposit rate is at a relatively low 2.00%. The ECB has moved away from forward guidance and is relying instead on a meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach. The markets have priced in a 50-bp increase at the December 12th meeting, but the release of German CPI on Tuesday and Eurozone CPI on Wednesday could change expectations.

After a short trading week in the US due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the markets will have plenty of US events to digest this week. The US will release GDP for Q3 and the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The key release of the week is nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which could have a major impact on what the Fed does at the December 14^th meeting. Currently, the likelihood of a 50-bp hike is about 75%, versus 25% for a larger 75-bp increase. Investors are viewing a 50-point move as a dovish pivot, which has been putting pressure on the US dollar. Still, even a 50-bp hike would set a record for yearly rate hikes of 4.25%.

.

EUR / USD Tehnic

• 1.0359 și 1.0238 oferă suport
• Există rezistență la 1.0447 și 1.0568

Acest articol are doar scop informativ. Nu este sfat de investiții sau o soluție pentru a cumpăra sau vinde titluri de valoare. Opiniile sunt autorii; nu neapărat cea a OANDA Corporation sau a oricăreia dintre filialele, filialele, ofițerii sau directorii săi. Tranzacționarea cu levier este cu risc ridicat și nu este potrivită pentru toți. Ați putea pierde toate fondurile depuse.

Analist al pieței financiare cu o mare experiență, cu accent pe analiza fundamentală, comentariul zilnic al lui Kenneth Fisher acoperă o gamă largă de piețe, inclusiv valutare, acțiuni și mărfuri. Lucrările sale au fost publicate în mai multe publicații financiare majore online, inclusiv Investing.com, Seeking Alpha și FXStreet. Cu sediul în Israel, Kenny a contribuit cu MarketPulse din 2012.

Ultimele mesaje ale lui Kenny Fisher (vezi toate)