Yenul japonez ridică din umeri după date solide

The yen has been drifting for most of the week and the trend is continuing today. USD/JPY is almost unchanged at 144.32.

Japanese data surprises on the upside

Japan has released strong industrial production and retail sales data, a further indication that the Japanese economy is improving. Industrial production rose for a third straight month in August, climbing 2.7% MoM. This was up from 0.8% in July and crushing the consensus of 0.2%. Retail sales for August jumped 4.1% YoY, above the consensus of 2.8% and higher than the 2.4% gain in July. Retail sales have posted 10 gains in the past 11 months, indicative of solid consumer spending, despite Japan’s weak economy and households grappling with relatively high inflation.

It was a wild week for most of the majors, but the Japanese yen has settled down after USD/JPY pushed close to the 145 line on Monday. Japan’s stunning currency intervention has kept the yen below the 145 line, but it’s difficult to imagine that unilateral action will succeed in stemming the yen’s prolonged descent, for two reasons.

First, the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver large rate increases in October and November. With the Bank of Japan showing no indication that it will ease up on yield curve control, the US/Japan rate differential will widen and send the yen lower. Second, the yen is caught in a tug-of-war between the MoF, which wants to see a stronger yen, and the BoJ, which is focused on maintaining an ultra-accommodative policy, which has kept JGB yields at low levels and weighed on the yen. If the yen does fall below 145, things will get very interesting, as the ball will be squarely in the court of the MoF, which will have to decide whether to balk or step in with another intervention.

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USD / JPY Tehnic

• Există rezistență la 144.81 și 146.06
• USD/JPY are suport la 143.21 și 141.88

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Analist al pieței financiare cu o mare experiență, cu accent pe analiza fundamentală, comentariul zilnic al lui Kenneth Fisher acoperă o gamă largă de piețe, inclusiv valutare, acțiuni și mărfuri. Lucrările sale au fost publicate în mai multe publicații financiare majore online, inclusiv Investing.com, Seeking Alpha și FXStreet. Cu sediul în Israel, Kenny a contribuit cu MarketPulse din 2012.

Ultimele mesaje ale lui Kenny Fisher (vezi toate)