Zaradi pomanjkanja plina v Evropi bi lahko ves svet to zimo plačal več za ogrevanje

Cene zemeljskega plina so narasle več kot 35 % v preteklem mesecu, saj skrbi naraščajo, da ni dovolj plina, shranjenega za zimo, če bi bile temperature na severni polobli še posebej nizke.

Običajno miren trg za blago je v zadnjih nekaj tednih postal vroč, saj se vlagatelji osredotočajo na rast povpraševanja po vsem svetu, ponudbe pa ostajajo pod običajnimi. Največji problem predstavlja Evropa, kjer je ponudba rekordno nizka za ta letni čas.

Celo v ZDA je količina plina v skladiščih 7.6 % pod petletnim povprečjem, glede na nedavne podatke U.S. Energy Information Administration. Zemeljski plin je pomembno gorivo za ogrevanje in je odgovoren za približno 35 % proizvodnje električne energije v ZDA, je ugotovila zvezna agencija.

“People are starting to throw the ‘crisis’ word around” when it comes to Europe, said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. He said natural gas in storage in Europe is 16% below the five-year average, and the level in storage is a record low for September.

“Europe is squarely behind the eight ball going into the winter season. It’s going to put the focus on this commodity that’s been overlooked for the last several years,” said Kilduff.

Prelomna točka bi lahko nastopila čez nekaj mesecev, ko bo postalo jasno, kakšna zima je pred Evropo in tudi ZDA. Nekateri analitiki pravijo, da bi se v ekstremnem scenariju cene v ZDA lahko podvojile, če bi prišlo do daljšega mraza, zlasti v Evropi, kjer je pomanjkanje lahko postane hudo.

“If the winter is mildly cold, it’s going to be problematic for sure,” said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives strategy at Bank of America.

Terminske pogodbe za zemeljski plin za oktober je v ponedeljek poskočil za skoraj 5.3 %, na približno 5.20 USD na milijon britanskih toplotnih enot ali mmBtus. Zemeljski plin se je od leta do danes povečal za 106 % in je najvišji v več kot sedmih letih. Toda enakovreden plin v Evropi in na azijskih trgih znaša več kot 20 USD na mmBtus.

“The U.S. is supposed to be an island, but in the last three or four years, there’s an increasing link between the U.S. and global market,” Blanch said. “We’ve gone from 50% correlation to 95% correlation. The U.S. market is being dragged around by this.”

ZDA izvažajo zemeljski plin v obliki pošiljk utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina. Pošiljke so narasle na približno 10 % proizvodnje v ZDA, pravijo analitiki. Južna Koreja je največja stranka, sledita ji Kitajska in Japonska, kažejo podatki vlade ZDA. Med kupci pa so tudi Brazilija Indija, Poljska, Španija, Francija in Portugalska.

“If it’s a cold winter, gas will not just be tight. It will be very tight,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. If that’s the case, prices could go sharply higher. “It will either be physical shortages, or it will be reflected in price.”

Strategists say for now the world’s gas supply is stretched, but prices could fall if the autumn and early winter are mild, and more gas is put in storage.

“We lean toward a lot of risks for price spikes, rather than higher and higher sustained prices,” said Christopher Louney, commodities strategist at RBC.

Brian Lovern, glavni meteorolog pri Bespoke Weather, je dejal, da so ZDA v zvezni državi La Niña, kar bi lahko pomenilo, da bosta oktober in november v severnem delu ZDA toplejši od običajnega.

Manj dni, ko je potrebno ogrevanje, lahko pomeni, da bo več plina šlo v zaloge pred najhladnejšo zimo.

“I think in a few weeks, the weather is going to give us some bearish headwinds [for natural gas] as we get into the October, November period. That does not mean we won’t see a colder winter,” he said.

Europe’s winter will depend on a weather pattern that sets up over Greenland. “The early indications do not indicate a big cold winter over there,” Lovern said.

Trg je zaskrbljen zaradi ponovitve lanskega leta, ko je mrzla zima v Evropi povzročila večje črpanje plina od običajnega.

Zaloge v Evropi niso bile dovolj povečane, analitiki pa pravijo, da je Rusija v zadnjem času zmanjšala nekaj izvoza v Evropo. Toda novi plinovod Severni tok 2, ki prinaša zemeljski plin iz Rusije v Evropo, bi lahko v naslednjih nekaj mesecih rešil nekatere težave z oskrbo celine.

Rusija Gazprom je prejšnji teden napovedal zaključek plinovoda, ki so mu nekoč nasprotovale ZDA Plinovod bi Rusiji omogočil podvojitev izvoza plina v Evropo. Germany’s energy regulator Monday je dejal, da ima štiri mesece časa za dokončanje certificiranja Severnega toka 2.

The situation in Europe has caught the attention of U.S. officials. Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department’s senior advisor for energy security, told reporters Friday that he was concerned about supply, and potential shortages if the winter is very cold.

Hochstein je dejal, da se lahko ameriške dobave utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina, v industriji znanega kot LNG, povečajo, Rusija pa prihaja iz obdobja nizke ponudbe.

“There’s different explanations for what’s going on, why Russian supplies are constrained,” said Yergin. “Russian and German regulators are in a debate as to whether new regulations apply that were put in place after the pipeline was given its final investment decisions.”

Yergin je dejal, da je azijsko povpraševanje prav tako vplivalo na pomanjkanje zalog. Kitajsko povpraševanje po utekočinjenem zemeljskem plinu je bilo za 20 % večje od pričakovanega, je dejal.

TortoiseEcofin’s senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel said Europe also did not get sufficient liquified natural gas cargoes to rebuild its inventories. “What happened was Brazil hydroelectric power didn’t come to fruition,” he said.

“There was drought, so Latin America and Brazil needed natural gas,” Thummel added. During Europe’s summer, “a lot of LNG… ended up in Brazil in particular.”

Supplies in Europe were not replenished, and there was a jump in demand. “Asia and China in particular got nervous. They started buying LNG,” he said.

Thummel said he does not expect a serious problem for the U.S. this winter, and prices could come back down. He said there has been an increase in rig count in the Haynesville shale. “You’re likely to see higher volumes,” he said.

Ena težava za ZDA je bil manjši obseg proizvodnje nafte iz skrilavca. Stranski produkt te proizvodnje je zemeljski plin.

“I would say the volatility in U.S. price will not be the same as it has been, and likely will be in Europe,” said Thummel. The amount of gas going into winter is about 8% below the five-year storage average, but “it’s not the end of the world,” Thummel said.

Kot so poskočile cene zemeljskega plina, so poskočile tudi delnice proizvajalcev plina, kot je največji EQT, Viri dosega, in Viri za antero. Tudi vlagatelji so skočili v Naravni sklad Združenih držav Amerike ETF, ki stavi na blago.