Sveži podatki o inflaciji bi lahko spodbudili dodatno nestanovitnost trga v prihodnjem tednu

After January’s surprisingly strong jobs report, focus swings to consumer inflation in the week ahead and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates.

Petek poročilo o 467,000 dodanih delovnih mestih januarja zmedel ekonomiste Wall Streeta, med katerimi so nekateri pričakovano negativno število zaradi vpliva različice omikron Covid na delovno silo. Poročilo je bilo osupljivo tudi v drugih pogledih. Novembra in decembra so bile tudi plačne liste popravljene višje za 709,000 delovnih mest, januarja pa so plače narasle za vročih 5.7% medletno.

“Everyone’s back to playing leap frog over each other to see how hawkish they can get about what the Fed’s going to do, when the Fed probably doesn’t even know itself,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. Trgovci na terminskem trgu so začeli določati cene v šestih dvigih obrestnih mer za letos, medtem ko mnogi ekonomisti napovedujejo štiri ali pet.

The consumer price index is reported Thursday, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is released Friday. There are also dozens of earnings in the week ahead, including pharmaceutical names Pfizer in Amgen. Walt Disney poročila, kot so potrošniške sponke Coca-Cola, PepsiCo in Kellogg.

“We may get some sequential improvement in inflation readings. You start looking at the CPI on a month over month basis… there may be movement in the right direction,” said Hogan. He said headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.4%, down from 0.5% in December. But that would still be a hot 7.2% year-over-year reading.

“Maybe movement in inflation in the right direction would be revelatory. I think it might take a bit out of some of the hawkish tone the street has,” he said.

Kljub močnemu skoku donosov obveznic so delnice petek končale z rastjo v tednu. Velika nihanja so zaznamovala trgovanje v preteklem tednu in nekatera posamezna imena so bila zelo volatilna. Meta platforme padla za več kot 26 % v enem dnevu razočaranje zaradi zaslužkain PayPal Prav tako izgubil skoraj 25 % v eni sami seji po izdaji šibkih navodil. Amazon po objavi zaslužka v petek poskočil za 13.5 %.

Julian Emanuel, višji generalni direktor in vodja skupine za lastniški kapital, izvedene finančne instrumente in kvantitativno strategijo pri Evercore ISI, je dejal, da vrsta nestanovitnosti v posameznih imenih poudarja tveganja za vlagatelje v najbolj rastoče tehnološke delnice, ki so med največjimi imeni v S&P 500.

“It’s extremely difficult for investors who have only known how to make money for 15 consecutive years by owning growth stocks to change how they view the world. The volatility we’ve seen around earnings in some of these names is not a surprise, but it’s exacerbated in an economy that is likely to grow north of 4%,” he said.

Emanuel pričakuje, da bodo ciklične in vrednostne delnice v inflacijskem okolju, v katerem centralna banka zvišuje obrestne mere, uspešnejše od rastočih.

O S&P 500 v zadnjem tednu zrasla za 1.5 % in se zaključila pri 4,500, kar je ključni tehnični prag. The Dow se je zvišal za 1%in Nasdaq se je tedensko povečal za 2.4 %. Nasdaq je zdaj 13 % pod najvišjo vrednostjo vseh časov.

Energetika je bila najboljši sektor v tem tednu, z rastjo za skoraj 5 %, sledile so ji diskrecijske delnice za potrošnike, z rastjo za slabe 4 %. Finančne dejavnosti so se povečale za 3.5 %, tehnološke dejavnosti pa za približno 1 %.

Več volatilnosti

Trgi bi lahko v prihodnjem tednu ostali nestanovitni. Donosi so prejšnji teden doživeli velik premik zaradi sovražljivih komentarjev evropskih in britanskih centralnih bankirjev. Selitev je bila po petkovem poročilu o delovnih mestih še podaljšana.

“We expect continued volatility, which as we’ve all seen in individual stocks in the last week, can be both to the upside and the downside, all in the run up to the momentous March 15 FOMC meeting,” said Emanuel.

ZDA 10-letni donos, ki vpliva na hipoteke in druga posojila, je v petek poskočil kar za 1.93 %.

Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said he doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to be as aggressive on interest rate hikes as the markets are forecasting. He also expects inflation to peak and begin to come down.

“As we get to March, April, May, we’re going to get to the point where the base effects bring the year-over-year numbers down,” he said.

Tilley pričakuje prvi dvig za četrtino točke v marcu s tremi drugimi letos.

Koledar pred tedni

Ponedeljek

Zaslužek: Amgen, Hasbro, Energizer, Tyson Foods, Take-Two Interactive, ON Semiconductor, Simon Property Group, Tenet Healthcare, Rambus, Leggett & Platt, Chegg, Nuance Communications

3: 00 pm Potrošniški kredit

Torek

Plače: Pfizer, Chipotle, SoftBank, BP, DuPont, Lyft, Interaktivni vod, Yum China, BNP Paribas, Aramark, Carrier Global, Coty, Thomson Reuters, masko, S&P Global, Warner Music, Centene, Willis Towers Watson, Edgewell Personal Care, Sysco, Harley-Davidson, KKR, Valvoline, Assurant, Spirit Airlines, Plantronics, Virtu Financial

6: 00 je raziskava NFIB

8: 30 am Mednarodna trgovina

Sreda

Zaslužek: waltdisney, CVS zdravje, Mattel, GlaxoSmithKline, Yum Brands, Uber Technologies, MGM Resorts, Fox Corp, Canopy Group, Penske Auto Group, CME Group, Potrošniški izdelki Reynolds, Mesa Air, Copa Holdings, Bunge, Lumen Technologies, Molina Healthcare, Zynga, Frontier Group, CDW, Honda, Toyota, Equinor

10: 00 am Trgovina na debelo

10:30 Guvernerka Feda Michelle Bowman

12: 00 pm Predsednik Fed Clevelanda Loretta Mester

Četrtek

Zaslužek: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Expedia, Credit Suisse, AstraZeneca, Twitter, Kellogg, DaVita, Eventbrite, Zillow, Affirm Holdings, Godaddy, VeriSign, Western Union, Yelp, Terex, Mohawk Industries, Equitable Holdings, CyberArk Software, PG&E, Arcelor Mittal, Datadog, Martin Marietta Materiali, Duke Energy, Unilever

8: 30 am Začetne zahteve za brezposelnost

8: 30 am CPI

2: 00 pm Zvezni proračun

Petek

Zaslužek: Pod oklepom, British American Tobacco, AllianceBernstein, blagovne znamke Newell, Apollo Global Management, Cleveland Cliffs

10: 00 sem Potrošnik