Videti je, da je Božiček v prihodnjem tednu na poti k vlagateljem v delnice

Po obdobju turbulence se bodo krovi morda sprostili za dobro staromodno srečanje Božička v prihodnjem tednu.

Zaloge so se v preteklem tednu dvignile po hudem razponu, ki se je nadaljeval v ponedeljek. The S&P 500 okreval in se je v četrtek povečal za približno 3.5 % za december.

“I think all the things we’ve been concerned about for the month of December to a certain extent, are in the rearview mirror,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “We know what the [Federal Reserve] is going to do. We know while this new variant spreads faster, it’s not as dangerous, and we know Build Back Better legislation is now 2022’s business… I think the market can find a path of least resistance to the upside as we wrap things up.”

The market has a lot of history on its side that trading days before the year-end are positive for stocks. According to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” the Obdobje mitinga Božička — zadnjih pet trgovalnih dni v tekočem letu in prva dva v novem letu — je večinoma čas rasti borze. The S&P 500 je bil pozitiven skoraj 79% časa tistih dni od leta 1928 in je v povprečju pridobil približno 1.7% na dvig.

Če k temu dodamo še dejstvo, da se je v času, ko je imel trg močno leto, zagon zgodovinsko prenesel v zadnje trgovalne seje. V zvezi s tem se je S&P 500 povečal za približno 25% na leto.

Po navedbah Bank of America, ko je S&P 500 že zabeležil tako trdno rast, je zadnjih šest sej pozitivnih. Od leta 1980 je bilo 10 primerov, ko je S&P 500 v zadnjem delu trgovanja zrasel za 20 % ali več, v devetih od teh let pa je zadnjih šest dni končal višje.

Delnice se po več tednih nemirnih borz podajajo v zadnje letošnje tečaje z vetrom.

“This has been the fourth rockiest December since 1987. The average daily move for the S&P 500 has been 1.1%,” said Hogan. “That’s a lot of action.” The most volatile Decembers were in 2000, 2008 and 2018.

Hogan said volume in the last week of the year is typically 20% to 30% lower than normal. “In a low-volume environment, when the market picks a direction, it tends to move in that direction in a robust fashion,” he said.

Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, said positive news on the Covid omicron variant this week was the catalyst that reversed the market’s sell-off. There were študije, ki kažejo na omikron biti blažji od drugih različic koronavirusa. Nadalje Uprava za hrano in zdravila odobren tablete iz Pfizer in Merck za zdravljenje Covid-19.

“Whereas the market was focusing on everything that could go wrong since Thanksgiving, people are now just taking a sunnier view,” Hickey said. He expects that view will likely prevail in the coming week.

“As we get toward the beginning of January, we’ll see how markets are positioning themselves,” Hickey said. He said investors will start to turn their attention toward the upcoming earnings season; they do not seem to be overly optimistic, which could spell some upside surprises.

“Going into the last earnings season, there was a ton of negative sentiment based on supply chains, inflation and labor shortages. We ended up having a decent earnings season. It’s more mixed this time,” Hickey said.

Novembrske in decembrske razprodaje so znižale delnice. Nekatere delnice z visoko rastjo in skladi ETF so močno padli, ko so se vlagatelji odločili za varnost. Skladi, ki so decembra vzeli svoje grudice, vključujejo Ark Inovacije ETF in Razširjen sektor tehnične programske opreme iShares ETF-ji.

“I think some of these growth areas that have gotten hit hard will do a little better. They could see a bounce early in the year,” Hickey said. “They sold off for a number of reasons. One was concerns over the Fed. Also people had made so much money, and the feeling was taxes are going up. People were selling stocks ahead of higher taxes. That’s more of a question now with a divided Congress.”

In the past week, the fate of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better stimulus legislation was put in doubt when West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin rekel, da tega ne bo podprl. Analitiki pričakujejo nadaljnje različice načrta porabe.

Bespoke’s Hickey said January could be positive for stocks, and with opportunities for some stocks to bounce if stung by tax-loss selling. “The January effect is a positive. All those tax-loss sellers that compressed multiples are buyers,” he said.

One of the stocks he’s watching is Boeing. “It’s one of the few big cap stocks that was down a lot. I think you can see that,” he said. The airplane maker has gained more than 6% in the past week, but it’s still down 16% over the past six months.

Glede na to, da Fed za naslednje leto napoveduje tri zvišanja obrestnih mer, so gospodarski podatki vseh vrst v središču pozornosti trgov.

Stanovanjski trg je imel velike koristi od politike skoraj ničelne stopnje, zato bodo vsi podatki o stanovanjih pozorno spremljani. V torek bodo objavljeni podatki o cenah stanovanj. O nerešenih prodajah stanovanj je treba poročati v sredo.

David Petrosinelli, višji trgovec pri InspereX, je dejal, da bodo naslednja velika podatkovna točka za trg delovna mesta v decembru v začetku januarja. Pričakuje, da bodo trgi naslednji teden relativno mirni.

“Next week is generally a snoozer, the week before New Year’s,” he said. “All the action’s going to come in the first week in January.”

Koledar pred tedni

Torek

9:00 zjutraj S & P / Case-Shiller cene stanovanj

9: 00 am FHFA domače cene

Sreda

8: 30 am Napredni gospodarski kazalniki

10: 00 am Prodaja na domu

Četrtek

8: 30 am Zahtevki za brezposelne

9: 45 am Chicago PMI