Julijsko poročilo o delovnih mestih bi lahko povzročilo naslednji velik sunek trgu v prihodnjem tednu

Friday’s jobs report could be a catalyst that helps determine whether markets are volatile or will trade like it’s the quiet dog days of August.

Več kot četrtina S&P 500 poročajte o zaslužku v prihodnjem tednu. Koledar vključuje podjetja v sektorjih, kot so potrošniške sponke, zavarovalništvo, farmacija, potovanja in mediji. Od Lastništvo rezervacij do ViacomCBS, Wayfair in Kellogg, bodo vlagatelji opazovali, kaj bodo podjetja povedala o ponovnem odprtju dejavnosti, motnjah v dobavni verigi in naraščajočih stroških.

“I think as much as 85% of the companies which are reporting earnings mentioned inflation on their earnings calls,” Franklin Templeton Fixed Income chief investment officer Sonal Desai said. “Inflation may not be a problem to policymakers and financial markets, which seem not to be concerned at all. It does seem to bother the people who have to buy stuff or people who produce stuff.”

Faktor delovnih mest

The Federal Reserve has said the sharp jump in inflation is just temporary, and many investors appear to be taking it in stride for now. The market is intensely focused on the central bank’s other mandate: the labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell je dejal v sredo rad bi videl močna poročila o delovnih mestih before winding down the central bank’s $120 billion a month bond-buying program.

Ameriški urad za statistiko dela bo objavil Julijsko poročilo o zaposlovanju on the morning of Friday, Aug. 6. It’s expected to show 788,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 850,000 in June, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.7% from 5.9%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 3.9% year over year.

Direktor raziskav Ironsides Macroeconomics Barry Knapp je dejal, da pričakuje, da bosta naslednji dve mesečni poročili o delovnih mestih močni, Fed pa naj bi bil potem pripravljen septembra objaviti, da je pripravljen začeti počasno opuščanje svojega programa odkupovanja obveznic.

That is an important step since it would be the first real move away from the central bank’s easy policies that were put in place in the pandemic. It would also mean the Fed would be open to raising interest rates once the tapering is completed.

Sprememba igre za trge

“Friday could be a game changer,” Knapp said of the employment report. Before that, he expects stocks to trade in a narrow range.

Če bo število novih delovnih mest v juliju veliko višje od pričakovanega, in sicer več kot 1 milijon, je Knapp dejal, da bi trg lahko takoj razprodal idejo, da bi bila Fed pripravljena zmanjšati svoje nakupe obveznic.

If the number is weaker than expected, the market could rally. “We are in a dead period after earnings, with concerns about the pace of the reopening. It’s still a bit of a question mark. The bias would be higher after a weak number. … Bad is good. Good is bad,” said Knapp.

Tako kot nekateri drugi strategi pričakuje, da glej popravek na borzi, morda še to poletje.

“I’m in the camp where I think we’re going to have our first major correction.” Knapp said. “What we’re likely to get is at least 10% or more. … It could really happen when they [Fed officials] make the announcement in September.”

Glavni ekonomist sklada Wilmington Trust Luke Tilley je dejal, da pričakuje le 350,000 delovnih mest na podlagi visokofrekvenčnih podatkov, ki jih spremlja.

“We think the run rate is about 500,000 jobs. Last month seems a little bit overcooked,” he said.

O S&P 500 je v preteklem tednu padel za 0.4 % in končal pri 4,395, medtem ko je Nasdaq izgubil še več, in sicer za 1.1 % na 14,672.

Med najboljšimi so bile ciklične delnice. Materiali so v tednu poskočili za 2.8 %, deleži energije pa za 1.6 %. Finančni sektor je pridobil 0.7 odstotka. Toda tehnologija je padla za 0.7 %.

Knapp je dejal, da je zdaj smiselno imeti zaloge, ki so v reflacijski trgovini, kot so energija, industrija ali materiali.

Vzpon delta različice koronavirusa je postal skrb vlagateljev in je bil dejavnik, ki je zadrževal obrestne mere. 10-letni donos, ki se giblje v nasprotni smeri cene, je obdržal nizko raven in je bil v petek pri 1.23 % zaradi skrbi, da bi lahko delta različica koronavirusa upočasnila rast.

Vlagatelji bodo v prihodnjem tednu opazovali druge pomembne podatke, vključno z Institute for Supply Management’s podatki o proizvodnji v ponedeljek in zahtevki za brezposelnost in podatki o trgovanju v četrtek.

O KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF je izgubil približno polovico svoje vrednosti od svojega vrhunca v februarju, v petek pa je padel še za 2.6 %.

Internetni prodajalec Alibaba is one of the ETF’s top holdings. The company is expected to announce earnings on Tuesday.

Ponedeljek

Zaslužek: Take-Two Interactive, Mozaik, Vornado Realty, Eastman Chemical, Simon Property, čezocean, Pionirski naravni viri, Reynolds Consumer Products, ON Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductor, AXA, Loews

9: 45 am PMI za proizvodnjo

10: 00 je proizvodnja ISM

10: 00 am Gradbena poraba

2: 00 pm Anketa višjih posojilnic

Torek

Zaslužek: Alibaba, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Clorox, KKR, pod Armour, Eaton, Discovery, Pitney Bowes, Marriott, ConocoPhillips, Activision Blizzard, Avis proračun, Public Storage, Devon Energy, Jacobs Engineering, Bausch Health, Incyte, Philips 66, Ralph Lauren, Expeditors International, Nikola, Warner Music

10: 00 am Tovarniška naročila

Ob 11 objava ameriške centralne banke New York o dolgu in kreditih gospodinjstev

Sreda

Zaslužek: Lastništvo rezervacij, Zdravje CVS, GM, Etsy, letovišča MGM, Allstate, Uber, Fox Corp., Electronic Arts, Roku, Kraft Heinz, Toyota, Sony, AmerisourceBergen, Marathon Petroleum, BorgWarner, Entergy, Apollo Global Management, New York Times, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Tupperware, MetLife, IAC/Interaktivno

8: 15 am ADP zaposlitev

9: 45 am Storitve PMI

10:00 Storitve ISM

Četrtek

Prodaja vozil

Zaslužek: Regeneron, ViacomCBS, Onkraj mesa, DropBox, Expedia, Sprouts Farmers Market, TrueCar, Shake Shack, Trg, TripAdvisor, Cushman in Wakefield, Kellogg, Cigna, Zillow, Lions Gate, Ambac, Virgin Galactic, Rešitve Motorola, Zynga, Illumina, AIG, SeaWorld, Cardinal Health, Duke Energy, Thomson Reuters, Datadog, Eventbrite, NRG energija, Choice hoteli, Parker-Hannifin, Wayfair, Zoetis

8: 30 am Začetne zahteve za brezposelnost

8: 30 am Mednarodna trgovina

Petek

Zaslužek: Liberty Broadband, Liberty Media, AMC Networks, Draftkings, Fluor, Gannett, Rast krošnje, Nuance Communications, Pnevmatika Goodyear

8: 30 am Zaposlitveno poročilo

10: 00 am Trgovina na debelo

3: 00 pm Potrošniški kredit

Posodobitev: Ta zgodba je bila posodobljena, da pokaže, da v ponedeljek ni nobenega dogodka s predsednikom Bostonske centralne banke Ericom Rosengrenom