Kako lahko bitcoinerji uporabijo čas, pričakovano ceno in ponudbo z izgubo, da raziščejo odlične vstopne priložnosti.
Priznanje: Derek Pennings je pripravil »Indikator vstopa«. Pomagal sem mu pri pisanju miselnega procesa. Najdete ga na Twitterju @PenningsDerek.
Ne že spet
To se je zgodilo. Ponovno. Cena je padla za več kot 50 % z najvišje vrednosti vseh časov. V takih časih se ljudje sprašujejo, ali je dno notri ali ne. Nihče noče prodati dna. In nihče ne mara kupiti dipa, ki se kar naprej potaplja.
Indikatorjev je veliko. Nekaterim pravimo kazalniki "on-chain", nekateri pa so tehnični kazalniki cen. Na primer indeks relativne moči (RSI) v dnevnem časovnem okviru. Ko doseže 20 ali manj, je to res nekaj. Kaj pa Fibonaccijeve ravni? Vsi odlični kazalniki, da dobite občutek za ceno. Toda ali je zaradi tega odličen vstopni indikator? Morda je koristno, vendar je vedno v primerjavi s prejšnjim cenovno ukrepom, ki ni temeljni prag. Tehnično je.
Uresničena cena
Kateri kazalnik ima torej temeljni prag? Realizirano ceno radi pozorno spremljamo. V prej napisanem članek, we explain how we look at the bitcoin (market) price with the realized price as an anchor. When the price of bitcoin goes below the realized price, it means that, on average, bitcoin HODLers are at a loss. Early investors may still be in profit, but most investors are at a loss.
On January 31, 2022, the realized price was around $23,900. In the history of bitcoin, it rarely happens that the market price reaches this level or even goes below it. But even when it happens, it doesn’t exactly mark the bottom. Yes, it’s a darn good place to stack some extra sats, but will the price stop from dropping at this level? On January 14, 2015, it most certainly did not. With a realized price of $310.91 and a market price of $172.21, šlo je veliko nižje. Morda je bilo to zato, ker je bil drugi vrh bikovega trga leta 2013 izstopajoč, realizirana cena pa je bila prednja po »normalni krivulji prevzemanja tehnologije«. To hipotezo bi lahko podrobneje razložili v drugem članku, za zdaj pa se osredotočimo na vstopno točko.
Prilagojena realizirana cena
There were times that the bitcoin price went through a large correction and the price recovered again before touching or getting near the realized price. Since 2020, large investors are stepping in and are changing the rules of the game. Michael Saylor likes to add bitcoin to his balance sheet when the price drops and President Bukele is also smashing the buy button on his phone when price dips. So, it might take years for the bitcoin price to reach the realized price again. It may never happen again, ever. Are you willing to wait for that?
Kaj torej, če prilagodimo realizirano ceno izgubljenih kovancev. Kovanci, ki niso bili premaknjeni več kot sedem let, se morda nikoli več ne premaknejo. Prilagojena realizirana cena je okoli 30,649 $ (odvisno od tega, kako jo izračunate). To morda zveni bolj realistično. Videli smo že stenj na 33,000 $. Toda tudi ta prilagojena realizirana cena ni vedno popoln vstopni kazalnik.
Okvir za kazalnik vstopa
Toda zakaj je vstopni indikator dober vstopni indikator? Razmislimo o tem. Obstaja nekaj dejavnikov, ki jih želite upoštevati. 1. is the moment in time. Because the rate of bitcoin that inflates the total circulating supply halves every four years, you might consider buying if a halving is near or you might wait longer if a halving just happened 18 months ago and the next one is still 30 months away.
2. is the difference between the expected valuation of bitcoin during that certain halving period and the actual market price. If the current price is way lower than the expected price, you might consider buying, and if the price is at par or higher, you might want to wait for a lower price.
3. je trenutno stanje na trgu. Se kratkoročni imetniki spet norijo in panično prodajajo? Ali dolgoletni imetniki ohranjajo svojo vero ali se diamantne roke celo spreminjajo v papirnate roke?
Odklon zaloga proti toku
Almost everyone in the Bitcoin space heard about the zaloga za pretok (S2F) model. It values bitcoin by its scarcity. The deflection is the current price divided by the valuation of the stock-to-flow model. Stock-to-flow became a very controversial model. It probably is (way) too bullish in the long run, because it doesn’t have diminishing returns built in, yet there is empirical evidence that there are diminishing returns in bitcoin.
But the model could still be very useful. What it does is value the price of bitcoin during a specific halving (expectation). And it is useful to distinguish which period you find yourself in between halvings (time). Even if the expected value of S2F will be proven to be too high, it still can be used in an entry indicator. Why? Because we are creating a ratio and if the S2F price is too high, the “green zone” of the ratio will be lower than if S2F was (entirely) correct.
Odstotek ponudbe v dobičku
With the S2F deflection having both the expected valuation and time covered, we still have to deal with behavior and sentiment to find a great entry point. To get a feeling about what the sentiment is during a correction, it’s useful to watch how many people are under water with their bitcoin purchase. This is possible with the metric of percent of supply in profit, because if 70% of the supply is in profit, 30% isn’t.
Since the bitcoin price has only gone up on a high time frame, one could state that it would be new market participants which have the highest chance of getting in an unrealized loss position. We also know that the younger the coins, the higher the probability they will be sold. Zato je verjetnost, da so novi udeleženci prodajalci panike, ki prodajajo z izgubo, zelo velika v primerjavi z vlagatelji, ki so na trgu dlje.
The influence of percent of supply in profit (PSiP) is very important for identifying a bottom and thus a great entry. When the PSiP goes down during a correction and rises again, it means paper hands sold their bitcoin. Chances are that if enough bitcoin has been sold at a loss, the bottom begins to form. The new owners aren’t at a loss and won’t sell the newly acquired bitcoin anytime soon. Typically, these new owners are also investors who have a strong conviction and have been through multiple severe corrections.
Če je PSiP še vedno nizek in se še naprej spušča, to pomeni, da imajo papirnate roke še dovolj hopija in da se mora kapitulacija sprožiti, preden se oblikuje dno.
Indikator vstopa
Množenje odklona med zalogo in pretokom (S2FD) s PSiP daje vrednost v razponu od 0.15 do ena. Šele ko tržna cena preseže vrednost S2F, se kazalnik tudi dvigne, tako kot vrhovi izpuha v letih 2011, 2013 in 2014. Opaziti je bilo mogoče tudi, da dna te metrike sčasoma oblikujejo nekoliko nižje najnižje vrednosti, kar bi pomenilo da bi najnižja vrednost sčasoma padala. Padec dna bi lahko bil pokazatelj, da je vrednotenje S2F preveč bikovsko, vendar bomo o tem pustili odprto za razpravo.
Ko se kazalnik približa 0.2, je bil v preteklosti vedno odlična vstopna točka. Upoštevajte, da so ti nakupni trenutki prikazani tudi zunaj medvedjih trgov. Videti je bilo, da sta dve nakupni priložnosti lepo predstavljeni v bikovskem obdobju 2017, presenetljivo pa tudi sredi leta 2021 in v zadnji januarja 2022.
Dynamics
The dynamics between the S2FD and PSiP is extraordinary. Let’s take January 6, 2021, for example. The market price was $36,850 and the S2FD was 0.987, and thus, the S2F price was $ 37,340. The PSiP was 100%. So every (on-chain) bitcoin HODLer was at profit. The entry indicator (TEI) gives 0.987 times 100% which equals 0.987. So, the price was almost at par. Nobody was at a loss and price was at the expected level for this epoch thus it wasn’t a great entry point.
Poglejmo trenutke v času, ko je prišlo do velikega popravka. 25. avgusta 2015 je cena padla na 211.04 $, medtem ko je bil S2FD 0.578, PSiP pa 36.5%. TEI je dal 0.21.
Hitro naprej do 15. decembra 2018 je bila cena 3,255 $, S2FD pa 0.463, PSiP pa 40.18 %. TEI je dal 0.186. Nekoliko več HODL-jev je imelo dobiček kot v letu 2015, vendar je bil odklon med tržno ceno in ceno S2F večji.
Na medvedjem trgu bi lahko dobili odličen vstop, vendar se bodo takšni vnosi pojavili tudi na bikovskem trgu. Potem ko smo 2,991. junija 11 dosegli novo najvišjo vrednost 2017 $, smo se v nekaj tednih vrnili na 1,914 $. S 78-odstotnim PSiP bi se lahko razpravljalo o tem, ali bi bil to odličen vstop. Vendar je bil S2FD 0.35, kar je povzročilo TEI 0.273. Če pogledamo nazaj, je bila to pravzaprav odlična vstopna točka kljub temu, da je bila sredi bika.
The same happened in the spring of 2021. On July 19, 2021, the bitcoin price was $30,834 and S2FD was 0.279, but PSiP was only 65.8%, which gave TEI 0.177. The outcome is almost the same as in 2018 and 2015, but it has a different structure. In 2015 and 2018, the S2F.D was less severe, but the supply at a loss was larger. In 2021, the S2FD was really large, which resulted in a low number, but the supply at a loss wasn’t that ugly.
It looks like there is a correlation between the consensus of bitcoin HODLers about the price in each halving period and the amount of (unrealized) loss they will endure during that halving. In 2015, there was consensus about price being relatively high and when price dropped a lot of supply was at a loss. In 2021, there was consensus about price being relatively low, but it also made sure that supply held wasn’t that much exposed to (unrealized) losses.
Sčasoma se zdi, da je okoli 0.2 zelo dobra vstopna točka in skoraj vsakič dejansko dno. Opozorilo o spojlerju, tokrat je bil TEI na 0.2 pri 35,000 $! Čas za vpis?
To je gostujoča objava Johana Bergmana. Izražena mnenja so povsem njihova in ne odražajo nujno mnenj BTC Inc oz Bitcoin Magazine.
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