NZD/USD – Double Blow Piles Pressure On Support

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RBNZ catches market off guard

Two months of consolidation has made things a little dull for the NZD / USD pair and that looked to be coming to an end until a new Covid outbreak brought everything to a halt.

The delta strain has many concerned and New Zealand has taken a tough stance since the start of the pandemic – successfully so – which makes the decision far from surprising.

What may have come as a surprise was the RBNZ decision to grind its tightening cycle to a corresponding halt before it’s even started. While conditions for a hike remain, the RBNZ is in no rush to raise rates during this period of uncertainty.

At least one more hike this year is the aim, with rates rising to 2% next year. Of course, Covid will have a big say in whether the merkez bankası can deliver on this.

With the country in lockdown and merkez bankası not hiking, it’s no surprise we didn’t see a break of 0.71 that could have led to further gains as the RBNZ led the G10 in tightening para politikası .

Instead it’s 0.69 that looks vulnerable and, in fact, we’re currently trading just below here.

A look at the 4-hour chart MACD ve stokastik suggests there isn’t much downside momentum at these levels, which given their significance as support, isn’t a good sign.

Of course, the flip side is that if we can see a significant breakout, it will carry the surprise factor and likely trigger a lot of stops, exacerbating any initial move.

Instead, the pair looks more likely to continue to range trade for now and we’re left to assess the threat of the latest breakout and whether the lockdown will be brief, as planned. At which point, the rate hike odds will likely increase and NZD should see support once more.

Bu makale yalnızca genel bilgi amaçlıdır. Yatırım tavsiyesi veya menkul kıymet almak veya satmak için bir çözüm değildir. Görüşler yazarlar; OANDA Corporation'ın veya bağlı kuruluşlarının, yan kuruluşlarının, görevlilerinin veya direktörlerinin olması zorunlu değildir. Kaldıraçlı ticaret yüksek risklidir ve herkes için uygun değildir. Yatırdığınız tüm parayı kaybedebilirsiniz.

Londra merkezli Craig Erlam, 2015 yılında OANDA'ya pazar analisti olarak katıldı. Finansal piyasa analisti ve tüccar olarak uzun yıllara dayanan tecrübesiyle, makroekonomik yorumlar üretirken hem temel hem de teknik analize odaklanmaktadır. Görüşleri Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph ve International Business Times'da yayınlandı ve ayrıca BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business ve SKY News'de düzenli konuk yorumcu olarak yer alıyor. Craig, Society of Technical Analysts'e tam üyedir ve Uluslararası Teknik Analistler Federasyonu tarafından Sertifikalı Finansal Teknisyen olarak tanınmaktadır.