加元继续在年度 G10 表现最佳货币的竞争中处于领先地位。然而,在XNUMX月至XNUMX月期间, 美元兑加元 bears’ business deteriorated. What discourages them from going ahead? Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up a trading plan
每周加元基本面预测
Modern aircraft are capable of using only one engine if something happens to the second, but their maneuverability lowers. The main drivers of the CAD strengthening in 2021 were the oil price rally and the BoC’s intention to normalize monetary policy before the Fed. So far, the situation with oil is normal, but a slower recovery of the Canadian economy than the central bank expected deprives the loonie of its maneuverability. 美元兑加元 自1.2月初以来一直处于1.215-XNUMX的交易区间,很难预测该货币对何时会离开该区间。
In the first quarter, Canada’s GDP grew by 5.6% YoY, which is not in line with the regulator’s forecasts. In the second quarter, the economy is not developing as fast as the Bank of Canada expected as well. For example, the drop in employment in April-May by 275 thousand people did not let the labor market recover to pre-pandemic levels.
加拿大就业市场的动态
资料来源:彭博社。
这一负面消息不太可能迫使央行放弃货币政策正常化。 4月,英国央行将量化宽松计划规模从每周3亿加元缩减至2亿加元,并可能在1月缩减至1990亿加元,到年底缩减至71亿加元。通货膨胀加速至 XNUMX 世纪 XNUMX 年代中期以来的最高水平、房地产市场过热、疫苗接种迅速(几乎 XNUMX% 的加拿大人至少接种了一剂)以及相关的经济繁荣预期,正在迫使央行坚持到货币限制。
加拿大央行资产购买动态
资料来源:彭博社。
衍生品市场预计未来 60 个月内隔夜利率将上涨 25 个基点的可能性为 12%。这三次加息已全部计入2022-2023年期间,使加拿大成为发达经济体中借贷成本最高的国家之一。相比之下,投资者预计美联储不会在 2022 年提高联邦基金利率,并预计 25 年联邦基金利率仅上升 2023 个基点。
No major developments are expected at the June BoC meeting. However, due to weaker data than expected, there is a possibility of a change of the BoC’s stance regarding the exchange rate. Earlier, Tiff Macklem stated that he does not see any particular obstacles for the economy to contribute to the loonie strengthening. Indeed, do exporters need to panic if oil in terms of the national currency of Canada has grown by 40% since the beginning of the year, and the number of people willing to buy call options on WTI 100 年 2022 月执行价为每桶 XNUMX 美元的石油在衍生品市场上正在增长吗?
包周 美元兑加元 交易计划
我认为,加拿大央行行长的言论能否严重影响加元是极其值得怀疑的。在石油趋势看涨、经济强劲以及加拿大央行行动优于美联储的背景下,其中长期前景看起来乐观。移动的 美元兑加元 如果价格超出交易区间 1.2-1.215 的上边界,随后返回到中间位置,或者有信心突破 1.2 的支撑位,则应利用该价位进行多头交易。
美元兑加元实时价格图表
本文的内容反映了作者的观点,并不一定反映LiteForex的官方立场。 在此页面上发布的材料仅用于提供信息,不应视为针对指令2004/39 / EC的投资建议。