劳伦斯 G. 麦克米兰
The two large-cap indices, $SPX and $DJX (the Dow) have moved to new all-time highs. But now $NDX is falling behind, and the Russell 2000 ($RUT) has been lagging badly all along. Of ourse, this pattern — or similar ones — has been in effect since mid-June (and really, even before that in the case of the Russell). As a result, negative divergences persist, but they can last for a long time even while $SPX is merrily moving to new highs.
The $SPX chart is bullish, of course, as it is trending higher, and there is well-tested support below (at 4370, 4233, 4165, and 4060 — all shown as red horizontal lines in Figure 1).
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, reflecting more what is happening to the “average” stock than to $SPX. The “wiggle” on the standard chart is not likely to be a reversal to a buy signal, according to our computer analysis programs.
广度仍然是市场的一个问题。昨天（12 月 XNUMX 日），随着 $SPX 创出新高，广度再次为负。即便如此，宽度震荡指标仍坚持买入信号。
Meanwhile, the implied volatility indicators remain bullish on their outlook for the stock market. The $VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20th remains in place.
$VIX 的趋势仍然向下，因为 $VIX 再次探向年度低点 15。$VIX 仍低于 20 日和 200 日移动平均线。
In summary, we continue to recommend carrying a “core” bullish position in line with the positive $SPX charts. As long as $SPX remains above support, one should remain long. If support at 4370 is taken out, that would change things greatly. But unless that happens, the “core” long position can be held, trading other confirmed (sell) signals around it.
此市场评论是评论的缩写版本 期权策略师通讯.
资料来源：https://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2021/08/weekly-stock-market-commentary-8132021
