Ο πληθωρισμός στο Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο αυξήθηκε απροσδόκητα στο 4.0% σε ετήσια βάση τον Δεκέμβριο

Ο πληθωρισμός στο Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο αυξήθηκε απροσδόκητα στο 4.0% σε ετήσια βάση τον Δεκέμβριο

Χρονική σήμανση: 17 Ιανουαρίου 2024 2:05 π.μ.
Κόμβος πηγής: 2444531

Μοιραστείτε το:

  • United Kingdom CPI rose 4.0% YoY in December vs. 3.8% estimate.
  • Monthly British inflation jumped to 0.4% in December vs. 0.1% forecast.
  • GBP/USD jumps toward 1.2650 on UK CPI inflation data.

The United Kingdom’s (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 4.0% in December, up from a 3.9% increase seen in November, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Wednesday. The market consensus was for a growth of 3.8%.

The Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) climbed 5.1% YoY in December, at the same pace as seen in November while below estimates of 4.9%.

Meanwhile, the UK Consumer Price Index rebounded 0.4% MoM in December vs. expectations of a 0.2% growth and November’s -0.2% reading.

Αντίδραση GBP/USD στα δεδομένα πληθωρισμού ΔΤΚ του ΗΒ

GBP/USD caught a fresh bid on the surprise upside in the UK CPI data, rebounding toward 1.2650. The pair is trading at 1.2636, modestly flat on the day.

GBP/USD: 15-minutes

Τιμή λίρας στερλίνας σήμερα

The table below shows the percentage change of Pound Sterling (GBP) against listed major currencies today. Pound Sterling was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.11% 0.07% 0.17% 0.50% 0.38% 0.33% 0.09%
EUR -0.11%   -0.04% 0.06% 0.40% 0.28% 0.23% -0.02%
GBP -0.05% 0.04%   0.08% 0.43% 0.30% 0.23% 0.01%
CAD -0.16% -0.05% -0.08%   0.35% 0.23% 0.17% -0.09%
AUD -0.51% -0.40% -0.43% -0.34%   -0.13% -0.18% -0.43%
JPY -0.38% -0.26% -0.41% -0.22% 0.13%   -0.05% -0.29%
NZD -0.33% -0.19% -0.23% -0.14% 0.21% 0.07%   -0.27%
CHF -0.09% 0.02% -0.01% 0.08% 0.41% 0.29% 0.24%  

Ο χάρτης θερμότητας δείχνει τις ποσοστιαίες μεταβολές των κύριων νομισμάτων μεταξύ τους. Το βασικό νόμισμα επιλέγεται από την αριστερή στήλη, ενώ το νόμισμα της προσφοράς επιλέγεται από την επάνω σειρά. Για παράδειγμα, εάν επιλέξετε το ευρώ από την αριστερή στήλη και μετακινηθείτε κατά μήκος της οριζόντιας γραμμής στο ιαπωνικό γιεν, η ποσοστιαία αλλαγή που εμφανίζεται στο πλαίσιο θα αντιπροσωπεύει EUR (βάση)/JPY (προσφορά).

Αυτή η ενότητα παρακάτω δημοσιεύθηκε στις 23:15 GMT την Τρίτη ως προεπισκόπηση των στοιχείων για τον πληθωρισμό στο Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο.

  • The high-impact UK CPI data will be released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday.
  • Headline and core annual inflation from the United Kingdom are set to fall, while monthly CPI is expected to rebound.
  • The UK CPI report could significantly influence the BoE policy outlook, impacting the Pound Sterling.

With increased bets for an interest cut by the Bank of England (BoE) as early as April, the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United Kingdom (UK) will be closely scrutinized for gauging the timing of the BoE policy pivot and its impact on the Pound Sterling.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the UK inflation data at 07:00 GMT on Wednesday.

Τι να περιμένουμε από την επόμενη έκθεση του Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου για τον πληθωρισμό;

The headline annual UK Consumer Price Index is seen growing by 3.8% in December, a modest slowdown from November’s 3.9% increase. The reading would be its lowest since September 2021, but still almost double the BoE’s 2.0% target.

The Core CPI inflation is seen falling further to 4.9% YoY in December, compared with a 5.1% growth recorded in November. Meanwhile, the British monthly CPI is expected to jump 0.2% after falling 0.2% in November.

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) cited key reasons behind the likely easing in the headline inflation data, noting that “We don’t expect a rebound from the weak Nov report, and instead look for more weakness in Dec. A rise in tobacco duty adds some upside pressure on the headline, but softness in leisure and travel should support a decent fall in services to 6.0% YoY— a notable 0.9 ppts below the MPC. This should support a dovish pivot soon from the MPC in Feb, but cuts likely won’t come until May.”

At a hearing of the Treasury committee earlier this month, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he hoped the recent fall in the cost of mortgages would continue. Bailey refrained from commenting on the monetary policy outlook but said, “let’s just take the market for a moment – obviously that is feeding through into mortgage costs and I hope that is something that continues.”

After the UK central bank held the policy rate at 5.25% at its December meeting, Governor Bailey pushed back against speculation in the financial markets that the interest τιμές would soon be reduced, stressing that the fight to bring inflation down to 2% is “hard work.”

A surprise fall in inflation in November, however, raised hopes that the BoE would begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. The ONS said that falling petrol prices were largely behind the surprise drop in inflation last month, alongside easing food and household goods price inflation.

In the quarter to November, UK wages grew at the slowest pace in almost a year, adding to signs of easing inflationary pressures and BoE’s worries. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus in the UK rose 6.6% 3M YoY in November, slowing from October’s 7.2% increase. 

Εν τω μεταξύ, της Βρετανίας Ακαθάριστο Εγχώριο Προϊόν (GDP) expanded by 0.3% in November after October’s 0.3% decline. But the economy remains at high risk of slipping into a recession as households continue to bear the burden of high energy bills and borrowing costs.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming UK inflation data could help estimate the pace and timing of the central bank’s interest rate cuts this year, which could have a significant impact on the value of the Pound Sterling.

Πότε θα δημοσιευτεί η έκθεση του δείκτη τιμών καταναλωτή του Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου και πώς θα μπορούσε να επηρεάσει το GBP/USD;

The UK CPI data will be published on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT. The Pound Sterling is correcting from two-week highs of 1.2786 against the Αμερικάνικο δολλάριο in the run-up to the United Kingdom’s inflation showdown. The US Dollar is regaining its safe-haven status amid an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

An unexpected uptick in the headline and core inflation data could pour cold water on expectations of a BoE rate cut as early as April, providing the much-needed lift to the Pound Sterling. In such a case, GBP/USD could revert toward the 1.2785 region. Conversely, GBP/USD could extend its correction toward 1.2600 if the UK CPI data shows a rapid fall in inflation and affirms BoE April rate cut bets.

Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst στο FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and explains: “The GBP/USD pair has breached the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2712, as the downside correction unfolds. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is piercing the midline from above, suggesting more pain ahead of the Pound Sterling.”

“A sustained move below the ascending 50-day SMA at 1.2611 could intensify selling pressure on the Pound Sterling. The next downside targets are seen at the critical 200-day SMA at 1.2548 and the 1.2500 round level. Alternatively, any recovery in GBP / USD will need acceptance above the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance at 1.2712, above which doors will reopen for a test of the two-week high of 1.2786,” Dhwani adds.

Τιμή λίρας στερλίνας αυτή την εβδομάδα

The table below shows the percentage change of Pound Sterling (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. Pound Sterling was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.57% 0.84% 0.64% 1.33% 1.08% 1.25% 0.87%
EUR -0.57%   0.27% 0.07% 0.74% 0.49% 0.69% 0.30%
GBP -0.85% -0.27%   -0.20% 0.50% 0.24% 0.42% 0.03%
CAD -0.64% -0.07% 0.21%   0.69% 0.44% 0.61% 0.23%
AUD -1.35% -0.77% -0.49% -0.70%   -0.25% -0.08% -0.47%
JPY -1.08% -0.50% -0.36% -0.43% 0.27%   0.19% -0.19%
NZD -1.26% -0.67% -0.42% -0.62% 0.08% -0.18%   -0.39%
CHF -0.88% -0.30% -0.03% -0.23% 0.47% 0.21% 0.38%  

Ο χάρτης θερμότητας δείχνει τις ποσοστιαίες μεταβολές των κύριων νομισμάτων μεταξύ τους. Το βασικό νόμισμα επιλέγεται από την αριστερή στήλη, ενώ το νόμισμα της προσφοράς επιλέγεται από την επάνω σειρά. Για παράδειγμα, εάν επιλέξετε το ευρώ από την αριστερή στήλη και μετακινηθείτε κατά μήκος της οριζόντιας γραμμής στο ιαπωνικό γιεν, η ποσοστιαία αλλαγή που εμφανίζεται στο πλαίσιο θα αντιπροσωπεύει EUR (βάση)/JPY (προσφορά).

Οικονομικός δείκτης

United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The United Kingdom (UK) Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for Εθνικές Στατιστικές on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core CPI excludes the volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The Core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Διαβάστε περισσότερα.

Επόμενη έκδοση: 01/17/2024 07:00:00 GMT

Συχνότητα: Μηνιαία Χρέωση

πηγή: Γραφείο Εθνικών Στατιστικών

Η Τράπεζα της Αγγλίας είναι επιφορτισμένη με τη διατήρηση του πληθωρισμού, όπως μετράται με τον τίτλο του Δείκτη Τιμών Καταναλωτή (CPI) σε περίπου 2%, δίνοντας τη σημασία της μηνιαίας έκδοσης. Η αύξηση του πληθωρισμού συνεπάγεται ταχύτερη και συντομότερη αύξηση των επιτοκίων ή μείωση της αγοράς ομολόγων από τη BOE, που σημαίνει συμπίεση της προσφοράς λιρών. Αντίθετα, η πτώση του ρυθμού ανόδου των τιμών υποδηλώνει χαλαρότερη νομισματική πολιτική. Ένα αποτέλεσμα υψηλότερο από το αναμενόμενο τείνει να είναι ανοδικό GBP.

Σφραγίδα ώρας:

Περισσότερα από FX Street