A Guide to Picking a 2024 NCAA Tournament Champion

While upsets happen all the time in the NCAA Tournament, there are usually only a handful of teams that can win the tournament. Here is a guide to Picking a 2024 NCAA Tournament Champion!

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These teams are efficient on both ends of the floor and are usually battle-tested as well. The last team to win it all and not be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (according to kenpom.com) was UConn in 2014. That UConn team is the only team since 2002 not to meet those parameters and still win the championship.

Other teams could follow 2014 UConn’s steps and win it all, but they would be a statistical outlier.

Note: Teams can start outside of these parameters, but play so efficiently in the tournament that they finish there.

Teams Currently Fitting the Criteria (Pick With Little Risk)

Connecticut Huskies- UConn ranks first in KenPom. They are first in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. The Huskies have dominated all year long and as the number one overall seed, they are the most-picked team to win it all on ESPN.

Houston Cougars- Houston is second overall on KenPom. The Cougars rank second in defensive efficiency and 17th in offensive. There has been several injuries to role players, so depth could be an issue, but Houston has handled everything well and are poised for a big tournament run with Jamal Shead leading the way at point guard.

Purdue Boilermakers– There might be some hesitation picking Purdue after they lost to a 16-seed last season. They are a different team this season, as their guards have developed. They are fourth in offensive efficiency and 21st on defense. The officiating Zach Edey gets (both good and bad) could make things dicey, as well as their guards’ ability to handle pressure. Purdue has enough talent to go on a deep run despite their relative lack of NCAA Tournament success in recent memory.

Auburn Tigers- Auburn won the SEC Tournament with a team that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive. The Tigers have depth and a nice inside presence in Johni Broome who could help them go on a run.

Arizona Wildcats- The Wildcats were upset by a 15-seed last season, but Arizona has reloaded. They are eighth in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. Caleb Love has been a star and has big-time NCAA tournament experience after helping North Carolina go to the Final Four two seasons ago.

North Carolina Tar Heels- North Carolina has two stars in R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot who give them a nice inside-out game. That has shown up in the efficiency numbers, as they are 24th in offensive and eighth in defensive efficiency.

Creighton Blue Jays- Crieghton comes in at 12th in offensive and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Blue Jays have good perimeter scorers in Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander, but also have a post presence in Ryan Kalkbrenner. The metrics come in favor of Creighton, but it is important to note that no team has ever lost their first game of a conference tournament and won the title. Every champion since 1983 has made it to the final of their conference tournament. Creighton would be an outlier if those stats are believed.

Marquette Golden Eagles- Tyler Kolek’s injury will have to be monitored, but Marquette currently fits the criteria to be in this tier. The Golden Eagles are 21st in offensive and 19th in defensive efficiency. If Kolek is healthy it helps, but it is also worth noting Shaka Smart hasn’t been to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since taking VCU to the Final Four in 2011.

Teams Who Can Play Their Way Into the Criteria (Pick With Some Risk)

Tennessee Volunteers- Tennessee ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, but their defense ranks third. A few good games from Dalton Knecht could vault the Volunteers into the top category as real contenders.

Duke Blue Devils- At seventh in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive, it is plausible for Duke to play their way into the criteria for a champion. They will need players to step up around Kyle Filipowski.

Wisconsin Badgers- Wisconsin has had an up-and-down season. They are 13th in offensive efficiency and 47th in defensive efficiency. Making up 22 spots in defensive efficiency will be tough, but that has happened over a stretch of a couple games. No no. 5 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament so there is some risk with this pick outside of the criteria as well.

Saint Mary’s Gaels- The Gaels had a rough start to the season but bounced back well. They are 45th in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive. As mentioned, no no. 5 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament, so there is plenty of risk selecting the Gaels to the Final Four.

Gonzaga Bulldogs- Gonzaga is thin, but they are also pretty efficient. They rank ninth in offensive efficiency and 46th in defensive efficiency. As mentioned with St. Mary’s, no no. 5 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament.

Teams With a Very Outside Shot of Playing into the Criteria (Pick With a Lot of Risk)

Texas Tech Red Raiders- Texas Tech ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency and 45th in defensive. They could play their way into the criteria, but only one no. 6 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament: 1988 Kansas Jayhawks.

Colorado Buffaloes- Colorado is a no. 10 seed, but actually have solid efficiency numbers. They are 25th in offensive efficiency and 42nd in defensive. No seed higher than a no. 8 has won the NCAA tournament.

New Mexico Lobos- The Selection Committee was harsh on the Lobos giving them a no. 11 seed. They are decently efficient at 41 in offense and 23 in defense. It is not advisable to pick an 11 seed to win it all, but they could play their way into the criteria.

Nebraska Cornhuskers- Nebraska ranks in the 30s for both offensive and defensive efficiency. It is hard to see them improving enough on both ends of the floor to meet the criteria. They are a no. 8 seed though, which has won an NCAA Tournament before: 1985 Villanova Wildcats.

Favorites to Avoid (Teams are high seeds, but don’t fit the criteria)

Iowa State Cyclones- Iowa State ranks 55th in offensive efficiency. They can go on a run, but winning a championship probably isn’t in the cards unless they really take a step forward offensively.

Illinois Fighting Illini- The Fighting Illini won the Big Ten Tournament, but rank 93rd in defensive efficiency. It is likely impossible to improve their defense enough to win it all, but they are very talented.

Alabama Crimson Tide- The defense is the issue for the Crimson Tide. They rank 112th in defensive efficiency.

Baylor Bears- Baylor was a team that didn’t fit the criteria in 2021 when they won the title, but played their way into it during the NCAA Tournament. It would be really hard to do the same thing again given their 64th-ranked defensive efficiency.

Kentucky Wildcats- The Wildcats are a lot of fun with their great offense. Their defense has shown flashes, but they haven’t been able to defend consistently all year. They rank 108th in defensive efficiency. A tournament run is still possible, but winning the whole thing would take more consistent defense over a six-game stretch that hasn’t been seen out of Kentucky this season.

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