Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its ascent on Oct 3, clearing the final resistance level prior to the Sept 7 highs. While there is some short-term weakness developing, BTC is expected to eventually move above the aforementioned highs.
Bitcoin increased considerably on Oct 5, creating a large bullish candlestick.
The candlestick was important since it took the price above the Supertrend resistance line (red icon). The Supertrend is an indicator created by using the absolute high and low prices on a given day and serves as a gauge for the direction of the trend. Now, it has finally turned bullish (green circle), after being bearish since Sept 7.
The next closest resistance area is found at $57,200. This is the 0.786 Fib retracement resistance level and a horizontal resistance area.
The RSI and MACD are also bullish.
In the case of the RSI, it has moved above 50 (green icon) and is increasing. The RSI is a momentum indicator, and its crosses above and below 50 are signs that the trend is bullish/bearish. The previous cross above 50 occurred on July 21 and preceded the entire upward movement to the Sept 7 highs.
The MACD histogram is also now positive. The MACD is created by a combination of short and long-term moving averages (MA), and a positive histogram means that the short-term MA is increasing at a faster rate relative to the long-term rate.
Therefore, the trend in the daily time frame is clearly bullish.
The six-hour chart also provides a bullish reading.
Firstly, it shows that the price increase greatly accelerated once BTC moved above the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level and validated it as support (blue icon). This means that if the price were to return to this level once more, a bounce would be expected.
Similar to the daily time frame, technical indicators are bullish. The RSI crossed above 70, meaning that while the trend is becoming overbought, it is still firmly bullish.
BTC wave count
Finally, the two-hour chart shows that BTC has broken out from an ascending parallel channel and validated it as support after (green icon).
While BTC has been increasing since then, there has been some bearish divergence developing in the MACD. This means that the increase in price is not accompanied by an increase in momentum, and could lead to a short-term drop.
However, the same occurrence has not transpired in the RSI.
If BTC were to decrease, the resistance line of the channel would be expected to act as support (green icon).
The most likely wave count would indicate that the movement is a fourth wave pullback. This means that after a sharp increase, an equally sharp drop could follow prior to the final upward movement.
In the most bearish scenario, the drop would continue all the way to the midline of the channel near $45,000. However, another retest at the top of the channel would be the more likely scenario.
The long-term wave count is also bullish.
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- Bitcoin (BTC)