Code S RO16 Preview - Dark, SpeCial, Creator, GuMiho

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RO16 Group C Preview: Dark, SpeCial, Creator, GuMiho

Start time: Thursday, Jul 06 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer

The underdogs have shown out so far in the GSL, with military returnee TY making it out of Group A while NightMare gave herO a serious scare in Group B. That’s why even Dark, who typically dispatches weaker players with ease, might be wary against this collection of foes who come wielding a deep bag of tricks.

Dark

It’s fair to say that so far, 2023/24 hasn’t gone the way Dark would have hoped. 2022/23 was a solid campaign for the mustachioed menace as he won DreamHack Valencia and reached the RO4 in two Code S tournaments. However, Dark seems like the kind of player who isn’t happy with anything less than perennial title contention, and he surely wanted to do better in 2023/24. Unfortunately for him, his results have actually dipped in the early going (RO6 Code S Season 1, RO8 DH Atlanta), making Code S Season 2 a potential inflection point.

Dark’s offline results are especially disappointing considering he’s continued to be a strong online player with a 76% match win-rate in 2023. For players who have the nerves-factor figured out, online form is often a good proxy for offline form (just recently we’ve Classic’s improvement predicted by his strong online cup showings). So, you have to wonder if there’s actually something wrong with Dark, or if he’s about due for a big performance.

Despite Dark’s recent struggles and GuMiho looking much more dangerous after ESL Summer, Dark still has to be the group favorite on paper. His career achievements dwarf those of his group mates, and he has a history of pulling championships from out of nowhere after mediocre stretches. He won’t need to play at his best to reach the Round of 8, but he will need to turn things around in the later portion of Code S if he’s going to make up for his poor Season 1.

SpeCial

After being absent for over a year, the GSL’s resident foreigner is back for another season. What can be said about SpeCial that hasn’t been said before? While SpeCial brings some entertaining strategic diversity to Code S, he’s rarely made an impact in Korea’s most prestigious individual league. SpeCial can be tricky and he can put out a solid effort in a macro game here and there, but the gulf in talent between him and, say, Dark or GuMiho (or even Creator during his career resurgence last summer) is often too much to overcome. And, while I bemoaned the fact that Dark has experienced a year devoid of deep runs, SpeCial has failed to reach the Round of 4 or better since 2019. Compare that to his group mates—all of which have made it to the semifinals or better of a Liquipedia premier-tier event in the last 18 months.

Ultimately, Aligulac is even crueler to SpeCial than I could ever be. The site gives him a 8.8% chance of beating Dark in the opening match and a 8.1% chance of escaping the group. If the upset bug carries over to Group C, then perhaps SpeCial could send someone to a surprise 4th place finish like NightMare did to RagnaroK in Group B. But, it’s far more likely he’ll struggle to win a game—let alone a match.

GuMiho

GuMiho has the wind blowing in his sails heading into Season 2 of Code S. The Towel Terran entered 2023 having last made the finals of a Liquipedia premier-tier event in 2019 (which in turn was his first finals appearance since defeating soO in 2017’s Code S Season 2), and fans had to wonder if he had hit the limits of his post-military abilities. However, he wildly upended our expectations at ESL Summer, where he knocked out Maru, Cure, and Solar (by a combined 9-3 game score) before eventually falling to Serral in the finals. And, while The Finnish Phenom ended GuMiho’s miracle run, GuMiho might feel reassured knowing the other members of Group C have hardly been performing on Serral’s level as of late. His initial matchup against Creator is a totally winnable one—Aligulac gives GuMiho a 52% chance of emerging victorious against the former Jin Air Protoss—and this writer would be more than a little surprised to see GuMiho on the losing end of their tilt. Whatever happens, GuMiho should be a strong favorite against SpeCial, and there’s no reason to think he can’t steal a match from Dark if he can play his A-game (even if Dark is a strong favorite on paper).

To temper the GuMiho optimism just a little, it’s hardly a given that he’ll play to 100% of his abilities. Tournament-to-tournament consistency has never been GuMiho’s strong suit (even in his Code S-winning prime), and he followed his fantastic ESL Summer with a group stage elimination dud at HomeStory Cup 23 (losses to Clem and Elazer). For the sake of seeing more classic GuMiho chaos, fans should hope it’s the ESL version of GuMiho that shows up.

Creator

What are we to make of Creator at this point in time? Following his massive improvement and miracle run to the finals in Code S Season 1 of 2022, it feels like he’s been everywhere on the skill spectrum in StarCraft II. We’ve seen him have stinkers like getting eliminated in the supposedly easy group stages of HomeStory Cup, and we’ve also seen him give Dark a run for his money in the playoffs of the IEM World Championship.

Through all of Creator’s swings in form, it does seem like he’s steadily been regressing to some kind of ‘middle.’ After that incredible summer of ’22—where he took two maps off of Rogue in the Code S finals and made top four at DH: Valencia—he hasn’t reached the semifinals in a single major tournament.

As Creator looks to get back on track, he should thank his lucky stars that he probably won’t need to beat Dark to reach the RO8 (Dark is 8-1 against Creator in offline matches). Fending off GuMiho and SpeCial’s weird builds won’t be easy either, but Dark just seems to have Creator’s number in these important matches. Having to pick between Creator and GuMiho to advance, it will ultimately come down to whoever is in better form on the day. Neither player is particularly consistent, but GuMiho gets the nod as he’s had the best major tournament result in the last few months.