EUR/SEK: Riksbank eyes a major krona reversal – MarketPulse

• Governor Thedeen say krona is fundamentally undervalued
• Markets fulling pricing in September Riksbank quarter-point rate hike
• Sweden’s government expects economy shrink by -0.8% in 2023 (previously eyed -0.4%)

Sweden’s krona has been punished as the economy appears to be headed for a tough recession. Core inflation is coming down too slowly and that will keep the Riksbank hiking even as expectations grow for a lengthy recession.  The krona has not been getting any relief as many Swedes have started to embrace holding euros given the krona’s record plunge this year.

Riksbank Governor Thedeen

Riksbank governor Thedeen said that “the krona is too weak and it is fundamentally undervalued.” He added that “it should strengthen and we think that it will, but we know that it is almost impossible to predict currency moves over the short and medium term.”

It is tough to call for a reversal after watching the krona fall to a fresh all-time low against the euro.  The current market expectations for the September meeting is to see the Riksbank raise rates by 25bps to 4.00%.  A freefalling krona is complicating the inflation fight, but that could see some relief as the outlook for the eurozone deteriorates.

Expectations for the Sweden’s GDP are not seeing a strong consensus emerge.  Given the currency and inflation situation, it seems that the economy could be entering a recession that last more than a handful of quarters.

The Swedish government is expecting a 0.8% decline in 2023 and a 1.0% growth for 2024.  It seems hard to believe that households will be a better position anytime soon, so a recession extending beyond 2024 seems likely.

The EUR/SEK weekly chart

EUR/SEK (weekly chart) as of Thursday (8/24/2023) shows the uptrend to record high territory is showing overbought conditions have arrived.  If the krona is able to firm up here, a mass exodus of EUR/SEK bullish bets could see price action tumble towards the 11.7118 region. If the plunge deeper into record low territory continues, EUR/SEK could make an attempt at the 12.000 which is just below the 141.% Fibonnaci expansion level of the 2020 high to 2021 low move.

Last week, the krona was the most volatile G10 currency, so we should not be surprised if that volatility extends further given the chaos in the bond markets.

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