As yet, there is no sign of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, which started with the aggressive invasion of Ukraine by Russia over a year ago. Supply chain disruptions have taken yet another turn during these times, making the future even more unpredictable. India is amongst one of those countries to have felt the direct and indirect impact of the war. The harmonious equations between Russia and China suggest a new global strategic alliance and a few have stated this as the beginning of Cold War 2.0. Meanwhile, just look at India’s immediate concerns and its impact on geopolitics in the long run.

India’s 34th report of the Standing Committee on Defence (2022-23) tabled in the Lok Sabha last month clearly stated that a few deliveries from Russia were not taking place. These apprehensions came from the Air Force in the context of the Ukraine-Russia war. It seems that Russia is stuck in Ukraine and the war is nowhere nearing the end. This, however, is also a big blow to India’s defence supplies from Russia. This is an extraordinary situation because there is no scarcity of funds for the Air Force, but it has had to reduce expectations of future supply from Russia. In the last financial year, the Air Force’s projection was Rs 85,000 crores, but they consumed much less (Rs 57,000 crores) and again this year, the projection is Rs 58,808 crore. This is a worrisome situation as due to the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia would not be able to deliver India’s orders.

There are two fundamental questions about how this contraction in Air Force’s supplies will impact India. One is about the bigger question of geopolitics, which is about the alternative ways of future defence supplies. While the immediate impact is expected to be on the supply of the critical S-400 air defence system and spares. These are immediate concerns but India is looking for some more major procurements in a short time, which is largely related to the modernisation of its flying fleet. These concerns are essentially related to modernisation of the current lot of fighter jet Sukhoi (Su-30MKI), the manufacturing of more than 10 Su-30MKI and the upgradation of about 55 existing MiG-29s and procurement of almost 20 MiG-29s.

The current scenario suggests that these major procurements cannot take place till the Ukraine war is over. The sanctioned strength of the Indian Air Force is 42 fighter squadrons. But the Air Force itself has admitted that they are now down to just 35 squadrons. But a few foreign analysts claim that this number may be down to only 31 squadrons. This may be because of the process of phasing out of the Srinagar-based MiG-21 Bison squadron (“sword arms”). In addition, we should not forget that from the current strength, six Jaguar fighter squadrons are likely to be phased out by 2031-33. It is also very likely that around the same time, the MiG-29 and the Mirage-2000 fleets will complete their service tenure and their total mechanical lifespan. In the next 15 years, many squadrons including the MiG-21 Bison squadrons will be decommissioned, which is likely why the Indian Air Force estimates it will take 15 years to reach the sanctioned number of 42 fighter squadrons.

Arms imports from Russia have declined from 62% to 45% in the last five years (2017-2022), while France (29%) and the US (11%) have rapidly increased their market share in India. India is planning to acquire 114 multi-role fighter jets valued at US$20 billion, despite efforts towards self-reliance in defence production. The acquisition is expected to be a clue to India’s strategic relations with the West, and there is speculation about which foreign defence manufacturer will get the deal.

When it comes to buying jets, European and American sellers generally have a monopoly. Let’s take a bird’s eye view of the contenders. There is no doubt that Dassault Aviation from France has been enjoying a good relationship with the Indian government since India’s independence. It started with the Toofani fighter jet, a Dassault MD450 Ouragan fighter jet produced by Dassault Aviation (in the 1960s) and has since progressed to the Mirage 2000, which was used in the Balakot airstrike of 2019. Mirage-2000 is a French multirole, single-engine, fourth-generation jet fighter manufactured by Dassault Aviation. Now Rafale is also from Dassault. This twin-engine fighter Rafale stands a good chance of winning the deal as India has invested a large amount in infrastructure support for its present Rafale fleet. Another potential bidder is F-15 Eagle II from the United States’ Boeing Defence since this twin-engine aircraft is a surprise entrant in the competition. Sweden’s Saab is being seen as an underdog. Single-engine JAS 39 E/F Gripen from Sweden has been considered the most cost-effective offer and which again is from a Western firm. In this race, F-21 is a formidable contender belonging to the US’ Lockheed Martine. It is believed in the defence circles that F-21 has a fair chance in the contest owing to the present US government’s backing. The Eurofighter Typhoon from the European Union, was a competitor to the Rafale for the Indian Air Force in 2015, but it is still in the race. The Sukhoi Su-35 and MiG-35 are also strong contenders due to their ties with India, and facilities for repairing and upgrading the Su-30MKI and other MiG series jets are available.

Now, the biggest question is whether India is looking towards the West for major defence procurement and especially for its flying machines. At this juncture, India seems to march towards a self-reliant defence production regime, but it is also true that in the foreseeable future, India will remain one of the largest importers of defence at the global level. Indian policymakers seem to adopt the concept of diversifying their supplier base while maintaining its trusted supplier, Russia.

Of late, India has had some issues with its suppliers related to prices, availability of spares, and so on; as a result, it is again expanding its supplier pool. Western countries, particularly the United States have been considered top in the charts. Just a few years ago, the US had discouraged India from acquiring Russian S-400 missile defence systems (2018). The then Trump administration signalled towards imposing sanctions on India under the provisions of the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act. It’s for sure that India is moving towards the West in this regard and this movement may push significant changes in the country’s strategic relationships and eventually in the balance of trade in the global defence industry. An additional question is about the new dimensions with Western countries such as France and the US, which may further strengthen India’s political ties with big players of the G-7.