[RCG 2021] Ro16 Preview Pt2

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(T)Dandy vs (Z)Julia

Group D starts us off with a fairly straight forward game. Dandy, whom has been contending with Terror for the position of top foreign Terran player, has been consistently strong for the entire duration of Starcraft:Remastered. Known for his excellent mechanics, he is one of a small handful of players capable of playing really strong SK terran – entirely skipping tanks in favor of more vessels, drops and faster upgrades.

While Dandy occasionally opens rax first, and while there have been examples of him playing mech, I don’t think we see either in this matchup. Going up against Julia, I assume he will be confident in his ability to win a straight up game, and that he will see no reason to deviate from his regular play.

Julia on his side, is not equally much of a mainstay in the tournament scene, at least not the very highest level. Having played in BSL proleague in four different seasons, he has never escaped the first group stage. Looking specifically at the Zerg vs Terran matchup in BSL proleague, he is 0-4 in individual games.

Still – having qualified for the RCG, he is obviously a capable player. In the BSL12, we saw him try to apply a guardian hydra opening, and he was reasonably close to making it work. While I consider him a big underdog going into this series, I also want to give Julia credit for being a fairly creative player who frequently makes reasonably smart decisions – but I don’t think he has the mechanical ability to fight toe to toe with someone of Dandy’s calibur. Julia snatching a win might happen, but Julia taking the best of three would be a great upset.

Prediction: 2-0 for (T)Dandy

(T)kogeT vs (P)Gosudark

This one is honestly a bit tricky to predict or analyze. Koget recently changed from being a Terran player to being a Zerg player. He used to play Zerg before – and I have no doubt that he will become a top player again with Zerg, but I honestly haven’t had the opportunity to watch him play much. Being listed as a Terran/Zerg for the tournament, I assume he is race-picking, and then, I believe he will play Zerg vs Protoss. While I haven’t seen him play much Zerg recently, player tendencies do tend to transfer across races. Koget’s Terran play has generally been fairly standard, with the exception that he is a big fan of two-starport wraith openings for Terran vs Zerg.

I’m inclined to think that this means he will also be happy to play 2 Hatch Mutalisk as Zerg – but that is unlikely to come out much in a Zerg vs Protoss game. Rather, I expect reactive early game play giving him a full set of mid-late game options, and not for him to opt for low-drone allins that either fail or succeed.

Gosudark on his side will play Protoss. He’s frequently characterized as a ‘cheesy’ player – which has some truth to it, but what I think is more precise is that he tends to make a bit fewer probes than most other protoss players. This does enable him to hit some timings that people are not entirely comfortable running into – but he honestly does not tend towards outright ‘cheesy’ build orders.

Aside from staying a bit low on the probe count – a tendency which gives him a bigger army in the early-mid game but a smaller army in the mid-late game – Gosudark is a competent player with strong army control. He consistently puts up strong results in all matchups, and quite frankly, I think he’s one of the more underrated players in the scene.

At the same time, Koget is the real deal. I’d have him as a small favorite if he was playing Terran, and if he chooses to play Zerg instead, then I assume he does so because he is more comfortable with that. Consequently, I’ll consider him a small favorite there, too.

Prediction: 2-1 for (T)kogeT – but not surprised to see it go the other way.

For the rest of the possible matchups:
(T)Dandy vs (T)kogeT: 2-1 for (T)Dandy (I think perhaps (Z)kogeT still intends on playing TvT? If he plays zerg, then I predict a 2-0 for (T)Dandy instead.)
(T)Dandy vs (P)Gosudark: 2-1 for (T)Dandy
(T)kogeT vs (Z)Julia: 2-0 for (T)kogeT
(P)Gosudark vs (Z)Julia: 2-0 for (P)Gosudark

Source: https://tl.net/forum/brood-war/574759-rcg-2021-ro16-preview-pt2

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