Do 90 MPH na Deadman's Curve: Nekaj ​​misli o tveganju

Ko bodo razbitino našli, se bodo priče spraševale, zakaj so sprejeli tako nepremišljeno, nespametno tveganje.

You’re in the back seat wedged between tipsy revelers, the driver is drunk and heading into Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour. Nobody’s worried because the driver has never crashed. Preden so zdrsnili v evforično nezbranost, so drugi potniki odgovorili na vaše dvome s statistiko in lepimi grafikoni, ki kažejo, da voznik še nikoli ni imel nesreče, tako da ni razloga za skrb.

They also said that the driver’s Uncle Fed had rigged the vehicle with an anti-accident device, so a crash was impossible. One passenger blurted out that a fellow named Goldy Sacks said the driver could easily “melt up” and take Deadman’s Curve at 120 miles per hour without any trouble.

You see the problem here: the risk of crashing and expiring is soaring but the giddy occupants are completely confident there’s no risk, and this confidence is the source of the danger. If you’re sure Uncle Fed’s device can protect the vehicle from any crash, then why not take Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour?

In če Goldy Sacks pravi, da bi dejansko lahko vozili s hitrostjo 120 milj na uro, potem je vožnja s hitrostjo 90 MPH pravzaprav zelo preudarna in previdna.

To zaupanje spodbuja veliko tveganje, ki se na koncu zelo slabo konča za vse veseljake. Ironija je bogata: večje kot je zaupanje, večje je tveganje, večje je tveganje, večje so možnosti za nesrečo. Večje kot je tveganje, večja je verjetnost, da bo trk usoden za vse potnike.

The confidence in Uncle Fed’s safety device is delusional because it’s never been tested. The fact that the driver hasn’t crashed doesn’t mean the risk is low or Uncle Fed’s device works perfectly, it simply means luck has been on the driver’s side.

It also doesn’t mean the driver can take Deadman’s Curve at 90 MPH without any risk. It simply means the driver hasn’t taken on more risk than he can handle until now.

Ko bodo razbitino našli, se bodo priče spraševale, zakaj so sprejeli tako nepremišljeno, nespametno tveganje. What they couldn’t know is the occupants were all giddily confident that a crash was impossible no matter how great the risks. So why not take more risk?

Indeed. This makes perfect sense: if a crash is impossible, then by all means take Deadman’s Curve at 120 MPH.

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Vir: https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/10/doing-90-mph-on-deadmans-curve-few.html