Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows

Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured.  USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could  reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks at 169.96, the September Treasury future little changed, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now unchanged at 1.61%, after the paper erased overnight losses. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and US futures are also posting fractional gains, but it looks like a cautious start to the day, with investors still digesting yesterday’s data round ahead of the Beige Book for the next FED meeting.

Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580.  MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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