Market Update – October 7 – Stocks Recover, USD Holds, Oil dips

• USD (USDIndex 94.25) holds at highs, Stocks recover and ADP beat as debt ceiling is likely to be extended to December. Biden & Xi to hold summit before year end, Oil dipped after surprise build in inventories.
• Yields eased a tad (10yr closed 1.5240%) now at 1.54% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China remains closed.  Evergrande news – investor to go private , clock ticking.
• Equities moved higher into close.  USA500 +17.0 (+0.41%) at 4363 (but remains weak) USA500.F higher for 3rd day 4375.  Asian equities mixed.  VIX closed at 21.20 – trades lower at 20.87 now.  
• USOil down from record highs $78.95 to $76.50 as inventories surprisingly rose by 2.3 million barrels.
• Gold slips on higher yields down to $1745 now back to $1760; 20-day MA $1765.   
• FX markets USD bid – EURUSD  1.1565 from 1.1525, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.35 from 111.85 yesterday.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, US futures are also lower. There was also some relief on the energy crunch in Europe and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of more than 1%, outperforming versus US futures, which are also moving higher though, led by a 0.6% rise in the NASDAQ as tech-stocks are back in demand.

Today – US Weekly Claims, Challenger Job Cuts,  ECB Mins & BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Wiliams.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.33%) Rallied from  0.7225 lows yesterday to test 0.7300 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 63 & moving higher. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0068.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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