November Inventory Trends: Leftover ‘23s, An EV Plateau, And Hybrid Hype

Republished By Plato

Followers: 0

Retail advertised inventory data for
the week of Nov. 6-12: S&P Global Mobility delivers the
following insights regarding the US market.

Overall industry inventories down from
peak

New vehicle dealer inventory listings peaked in
mid-October just shy of 2.5 million units, and have seen a slight
decrease since then – from an end-of-October level of 2.35 million
available dealer advertised units to about 2.3 million
mid-November.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

A BEV plateau?

Electric vehicle dealer advertised inventories
(not including Tesla) also peaked the same week in October at
135,000 units, and have declined slightly since then. Most EVs have
reached an inventory plateau and flattened off, except the Ford
F-150 Lightning, which has grown sharply to 10,000 units. Ford
reported total sales of about 2,000 Lightnings in August and
September combined, but then accelerated to 3,712 units in October.
The chart below shows industry-wide BEV retail advertised inventory
(not counting Tesla).

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Mustang Mach-E discounts

However, Ford’s commitment to making the
Mustang Mach-E a sales success has come at a price – or rather a
price cut. More than half of Mach-E’s retail advertised inventory
is carrying a below-sticker offer. In Maryland and Virginia
dealerships, Mach-E has an average discount of more than $5,000.
Big discounts on the Mach-E can also be found in Mississippi,
Oklahoma, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Kentucky. The chart below
shows EV retail advertised inventories by nameplate.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Hybrids still revving hard

As consumers tap the
brakes in their willingness to commit to the electric vehicle
lifestyle, a hybrid-electric
powertrain is being accepted as an acceptable halfway
alternative. As of Nov. 12, there were 219k hybrids in dealer
advertised inventories – a number that had been growing all summer
to meet sales demand. About one-third of that total comes from the
compact SUV segment, as seen in the chart below.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail Advertised Inventory data,
week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Strike vehicles strike
back

In anticipation of the UAW strike action, GM,
Ford, and Stellantis cranked up targeted plants so that combined
volumes of the Ford Ranger, Ford Bronco, Ford Explorer, Lincoln
Aviator, Chevrolet Colorado, GMC Canyon, Chevrolet Traverse, Buick
Enclave, Jeep Wrangler, and Jeep Gladiator were at post-pandemic
highs of about 160,000 units as of Sept. 18. Despite the strike
lasting only six weeks at those plants before workers returned,
sales have pushed inventories down to about 116,000 units. For
example, pre-strike, the Jeep Wrangler had the second-most
inventory of any compact SUV; as of Nov. 12, they had fallen to
fourth-most inventory in the segment. Even if the assembly plants
return to full production quickly, there is the infrastructure
issue of getting units to dealerships. It appears volumes of strike
vehicles have reached their bottom, as seen in the chart below.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Selling down 2023s

As of mid-October, there were still more
advertised dealer inventory of outgoing 2023 MY models than
incoming 2024s, while the 2024 MY inventory was growing at a faster
rate than the 2023 MY sell-down. But as of mid-November, that tide
seems to have reversed; there are now fewer 2023s (about 955k) than
2024s (about 1.34 million).

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

2023s and mainstream
brands

So, who is managing the sell-down best? Many
brands activated fall selldowns, but Ford is carrying the 2023
model year deeper into the year – especially for the best-selling
F-Series pickup, which will have a 1Q 2024 rollout of the mid-cycle
refresh 2024 model. Currently Ford has about 250k units of 2023 MY
vehicles, of which 105k are the F-Series and Lightning. From Ford’s
level, it is a long way down to Toyota and Jeep in terms of
leftover 2023s; removing the F-Series, however, brings it much
closer to the pack. The chart below shows 2023 model year retail
advertised inventories by brand.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

2023s and luxury brands

Most luxury brands have cleared out their
2023s, except for Mercedes-Benz – which is still awaiting the
arrival of its re-engineered 2024 E-Class sedan. Although Mercedes’
summer selldown dropped its dealer advertised inventories of 2023
MY vehicles from around 250k in May down to 116k presently, the
2023 E-Class ramped up dealer advertised inventories in September –
levels which are still elevated because the refreshed 2024s are not
yet in dealer stocks. The chart below shows retail advertised
inventories by luxury brands.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail
Advertised Inventory data, week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Remember midsize sedans? Toyota
does.

With a short 2024 model year of the Toyota
Camry before the 9th-generation redesign arrives as a 2025 model in
spring, Toyota is cranking up the outgoing model. It was the
best-selling passenger vehicle for 20-plus years, until the RAV4
compact SUV took its place in 2017 – but it’s still near the top of
the sales charts. But that hasn’t stopped Toyota’s desire to keep
sedans in driveways. Dealer advertised inventories of Camry are
currently double those of the sales runners-up competitors – the
Nissan Altima and Honda Accord.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Retail Advertised Inventory data,
week of Nov 6-12, 2023
©2023 S&P Global Mobility